Bitcoin soared above $106,000 after the U.S. Senate voted to advance a funding package to reopen the government.
The move was an important step toward ending the 40-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.
The amended bill will now be sent to the House of Representatives and then to the President for final approval, a process that is expected to take several days.
QCP Group noted that this rally occurred despite continued selling by early Bitcoin holders and sustained spot ETF outflows. The company said the recovery was a “remarkable demonstration of resilience” in a market that still faces long-term supply pressures.
Options data highlights an uncertain outlook
QCP Group market data showed that the outlook for the Bitcoin options market is mixed. Specifically, some investors were buying complex bullish positions known as “call flies” with strike prices of $112,000, $120,000, and $150,000 on December 26, 2025, while simultaneously selling “call spreads” with strike prices of $135,000 and $140,000 on the same dates.
These contrasting strategies suggest that investors remain divided on whether Bitcoin can reach new all-time highs by the end of the year. Meanwhile, risk reversals have also become less put-biased, suggesting that concerns about further sharp declines have eased.
Traditional supply still casts a shadow
QCP Group compared the ongoing sales from old Bitcoin wallets to historical liquidation events such as the Silk Road and Mt. Gox distributions.
Although these declines create short-term pressure, the market is absorbing supply shocks more effectively than in previous cycles thanks to deeper liquidity and broader participation, the company said. He added that the distribution of OG is unlikely to disrupt Bitcoin’s structural uptrend.
Digital asset treasury finds breathing space
Digital Asset Treasury, which represents major institutional and corporate Bitcoin holders, has seen limited activity in recent weeks. However, Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the $100,000 level has given these companies room to reposition themselves.
QCP Group believes demand from large holders could resume once ETF inflows stabilize and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. This resumption of demand could provide the foundation for a sustained recovery.
Outlook: Range trading likely
Despite the recent rally, QCP Group analysts expect Bitcoin to trade within a defined range in the medium term. The company sees potential resistance near $118,000, which could lead to renewed selling by long-term holders.
Until traditional supply pressures ease, QCP Group expects Bitcoin to remain range bound but remain structurally stable, supported by improving sentiment and stronger institutional participation.
