After an intraday flash that saw Bitcoin hit lows in the low $60,000 range on multiple venues, it rallied towards $69,000 on February 25th, liquidating nearly $500 million in short positions.
The move will keep prices within the $60,000 to $69,000 range that defined February trading, Glassnode said.
But the structural weaknesses that have characterized the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs remain unresolved.
This rally looks less like a macro breakout and more like a risk-on rebound with a combination of post-capacity flow and positioning reset. Three mechanics explain the movements.
Three drivers following the rally
Cross-market risk appetite is back. On February 25th, global stock markets rose led by high-tech stocks ahead of Nvidia’s earnings results. Bitcoin traded in line with other high-beta assets as risk appetite improved.
Spot BTC ETF flows have turned positive. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $257.7 million on February 24, according to data from Pharcyde Investors. This was a reversal from the previous day’s outflow of $203.8 million.
But this move does not erase the broader trend of outflows. Glassnode flags that the ETF’s flows are negative year-to-date, but it also indicates marginal buyers that could lead to a sharp rebound after a flush move.
Positioning and option hedging are normalized. Glassnode flags that the perpetual futures funding rate has normalized towards neutrality, indicating that leverage has been reset.
Short-term volatility in the options market spiked as Bitcoin approached $62,000, but contracted again once the price returned to the mid-$60,000 range.
This action suggests that panic hedges have unraveled and fueled a mechanical rebound rather than new bull market demand.
What structural weaknesses still exist?
Glassnode’s analysis is straightforward. Bitcoin is “stabilizing, but not yet recovered.”
The market remains trapped between valuation anchors, with the main demand zone around $60,000 to $69,000. Today’s bounce is no different.
A 47% drawdown from all-time highs is historically the depth of a mid-to-late bear market. Approximately 9.2 million BTC are in losses, creating selling pressure on the rally as holders exit underground positions.
Glassnode’s cumulative propensity score remains below 0.5, indicating limited confidence from large holders.
A 90-day realized profit/loss ratio below 1.0 indicates a loss situation and reduced liquidity. Spot cumulative volume delta remains significantly negative, indicating active distribution and sell-side flow dominance.
Despite February 24th being a positive day, ETF flows are still experiencing widespread outflows.
$60,000 floor and $70,000 ceiling
Clear levels on both sides define Bitcoin’s current range. This $69,000 area sits at the top of Glassnode’s $60,000 to $69,000 primary demand zone.
Holding this level on a daily and weekly basis will help frame today’s move as a “range high recovery” rather than a failed rebound.
The $65,000 level acts as a mid-range, and Glassnode notes that the market rebounded sharply as short-term concerns faded. The $62,000 to $62,500 range is important. Glassnode has explicitly flagged around $62,000 as a level that “if broken could open a move towards the low $50s.”
A daytime flash on February 25 tested the area, accounting for and holding a subsequent mechanical relief rally.
The $60,000 level marks the bottom of February’s range. If we break that, expectations will move into an even deeper contraction. The approximately $55,000 below represents the realized price for Glassnode’s structural floor anchors.
Glassnode has clearly stated that unless levels can be regained above $70,000, downside contraction risks will continue to rise.
The $72,000 level marks the upper bound of Glassnode’s $60,000 to $72,000 corridor. A break through the top of this range would be the first sign that recent weakness is starting to fade.
The approximately $79,200 level represents the true market average in Glassnode’s valuation structure.
Recovering this would be a true signal for the regime. Above that, heavy overhead supply clusters sit at $82,000-$97,000 and $100,000-$117,000, allowing underwater holders to sell into relief rallies.
What qualifies as true regime change?
Three specific pieces of information indicate that the market has moved from stabilization to recovery.
The first is sustained inflows into ETFs. It’s not just one day of $257.7 million, but a consecutive period of net positive inflows that reverses the year-to-date outflow trend.
Second, the spot market has reversed from selling dominated to bidding absorption, and Glassnode’s spot cumulative volume delta has stabilized and trended positive.
The third regains a higher valuation anchor, rising above $70,000, then above $72,000, and finally above the true market average value of about $79,200.
conclusion
Bitcoin’s surge towards $69,000 reflects a risk-on rebound combined with a reset of flows and positioning after the capitulation flash.
Global stocks rose, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $257.7 million on February 24, and Glassnode on-chain data shows leverage has been reset while options panic hedges fade.
However, the structural composition is not reversed. Glassnode still says the market is stabilizing rather than recovering.
Weak accumulation, negative spot flow bias, and weak ETF demand persist. The bulls need to hold between $65,000 and $69,000 and regain levels above $70,000 and then $72,000 before the recent weakness can be called “corrected.”
The “can’t-beat” floor price remains at $62,000, with realized prices below that of $60,000 and about $55,000. Today’s move is a mechanical relief, not a structural recovery.
