Bitcoin is just over $113,000. Caps are steadily rising, with coins under three months of overwhelmingly leading to spending activity. The realization of profits remains positive, with short-term holders floating around the break-even point, and old supply showing little indication of distribution.
Bitcoin closed at $113,599 on August 20, falling 7.9% last week, falling 3.3% over 30 days, but recorded a 1.7% increase in 90 days. The spot turnover rate has been cooled. This conceptual volume averaged $2.688 billion over the past week, down from the 30-day average $2.888 billion. Activity mitigation reduces weekly performance, but does not necessarily reflect panic sales as on-chain flow suggests orderly profit realization rather than stress.
The realization cap, a total cost-based measure of all coins in circulation, is $1.04 trillion. We’ve added $8.98 billion over the past seven days. Over the past 30 days, this has increased by $34.85 billion. These profits line up almost exactly with net profit and loss.
NRPL shows a total of $85.9 billion over the seven-day period and a total of $33.25 billion over the 30-day period. The small residual gap ($0.39 billion for 7 days and $16 billion for 30 days) is in line with the dollar value of the new issue from Block Rewards.
At the current subsidy rate of 3.125 BTC per block, around 450 bTC is distributed every day, with the latest price being around $366 million in seven days and $1.58 billion in 30 days. This settlement shows that realised cap growth is fully explained by realized benefits and minor issuance without unexplained distortion in the ledger.
SOPR metrics check photos of stable profit earnings without any signs of distress. The adjusted SOPR is 1.028. The average over the seven-day period is 1.033. Over the past 30 days, it has been closed for more than 1 each day. In other words, total spending was consistently profitable.
The short-term holder SOPR is 0.995, with an average of 1.002 over the seven-day period, exceeding 1 for 24 days of the last 30 days. This reflects the marginal break-even conditions of recent buyers, some selling at cost and some small profits.
In contrast, the long-term holder SOPR is much higher at 1.718, with over 1 to 1 for the 30 days of the last 30 days, with an average of 2.21. The moving long-term supply is to do so with a very high profit multiple, consistent with periodic trimming rather than a wide exit.
Used output age band data shows the advantage of young coin churn. On August 19th, 94.95% of the used output came from less than three months of coins. Of these, same-day cancellation was the biggest component, with 0-day coins accounting for 83.27% of the total, followed by 7.49% of coins for 1-7 days. The band for 1-3 months only donated 1.42%. Coins from three to 12 months accounted for 2.97% of the spent supply, with coins over a year making up just 2.08%. Over the past seven days, the average share for more than three months was 95.98%, while coins for more than one year were 1.95%. Over the past 30 days, splits have tilted even further, with younger coins supplying an average of 1.41% above 97.14%. The meaning is that almost all turnover rates stem from the recent supply of very liquids rather than long-term coins.
The lack of distribution of long-term holders is reinforced by the days of destroyed coins. CDDs have nearly 15.6 million people along the 30-day average and no outlier spikes exceeding two standard deviations over the last 180 days. Historically, a large burst of movement of CDD signals in very old supply to the market, often preceded the distribution stage. Their absence suggests that despite profitable conditions, the old coins remain dormant.
A 0.537 Nupl continues to place the market in the belief/negation zone, with an average of 0.561 over 30 days. This means that a large portion of the supply is held in profits, consistent with continued profit acquisition and wide-ranging supply sales. NUPL’s 30-day data is less frequent and is treated as a regime gauge rather than a short-term oscillator. Still, the read shows that most coins are comfortable in the money.
Correlation analysis sharpens flow distinctions. In the last 90 days, the strongest link to the return is the short-term holder SOPR, with a correlation of +0.36. The adjusted SOPR only shows weak positive links at +0.05, while the long-term holder SOPR is almost uncorrelated at +0.01.
This matches the age group data. Short-term cost bases are most sensitive to price action. The old supply movement is small and there has been no price determination in recent months. The analysis showed similarly weak correlations between returns and NRPL (+0.08), CDD (-0.03), and spot volume (-0.13), reinforcing the conclusion that short-term profitability dominates the frontier flow.
The data shows a stress-free market distribution. Price performance has cooled and volume has decreased slightly, but we have noticed that CAP is rising along with issued adjusted realized profits. Profits are stable, STH SOPR is balanced near Breakeven, and long-term SOPR shows occasional high-profit sales without a wide range of exits. Almost all activities are driven by recent coins, the old supply is quiet and the CDD has no spikes. This combination refers to rotation within the active float rather than the structural outlet of the deep supply.
Over the next few days, the focus is whether the short-term holder SOPR maintains a delicate balance of more than 1. A critical shift over a few days has shown recent buyers being surrendered, and historically accelerates the drawdown. Currently, the data shows stability. The new supply is digested and the profits crystallized, but there is no stress.
Post Bitcoin SOPR shows consistent profit realization despite the first appearance of Price Pullback in Cryptoslate.
