Over the past two months, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has tried in vain to regain its $80,000 value, during which time the price hit a high of around $76,000. Interestingly, one market analyst recently explained that this is due to significant price levels acting as resistance.
Adjusted realized prices create resistance to recovery attempts
In a March 28 X post, on-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted the fundamental dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent problems. This analysis is based on a reading of BTC realized price excluding >7 years supply. A metric that reflects the cost basis of circulating supply, but aims to filter out diamond hands (i.e. lost or immobile BTC), excluding those over 7 years old.
❌ BTC still cannot go back above realized price excluding inactive supply.
This chart presents a cost basis that excludes supply older than seven years to better reflect actual circulating supply.
⁰— 💡This approach filters out both lost… pic.twitter.com/RZ6vH1oSLA— Dark Post (@Darkfost_Coc) March 28, 2026
Currently, this adjusted realized price stands at around $72,500, a level that Bitcoin has struggled to see consistent price movement over the past two months. Darkfost cites previous historical cycles to argue that similar conditions have often coincided with bearish phases.
According to market quants, Bitcoin has previously spent between six and 10 months below this investor cost basis during prolonged bear markets without a decisive recovery. This indicates that despite a bear market that has already lasted six months, the Bitcoin market could experience additional months of negative price appreciation due to a repetition of historical patterns.
BTC Market Overview
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $66,629, reflecting a gain of nearly 1% the previous day. Interestingly, the BTC market has barely moved over the past month, with a downward deviation of 1.27%, according to CoinMarketCap data. According to renowned market analyst Ali Martinez, the top cryptocurrency has received more attention from traders over the past month, thanks to the high price volatility observed.
Bitcoin open interest, or outstanding trading contracts, reached about $30 billion in mid-March, hitting its highest level in 2026, according to data from CryptoQuant. Notably, most of these transactions are occurring on the Binance exchange, where traders initiated an additional $829 million in open interest.
After the Bitcoin price has been in a bearish trend since October 2025, the market needs a bullish turnaround to begin a recovery, with factors such as macroeconomics, liquidity availability, and demand presence defining it. However, until market conditions indicate a more optimistic future, the Bitcoin market may actually be in for a tough period in the coming months.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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