Bitcoin traders cheer April’s historic rally, but one Fed calendar day could reverse this rally overnight

Bitcoin prices started above $68,000 in April after a relief rally in late March related to hopes that tensions in the Iran war could be heading towards de-escalation.

According to crypto slate The flagship digital asset rose more than 3% in the past 24 hours, rising as high as $69,170 before retreating to around $68,456 at press time, data showed, as investors weighed whether the rally marked the beginning of a more sustained recovery or just temporary relief from the first-quarter hit.

The rebound followed a rapid shift in broader market sentiment. Reuters reported that oil prices soared after US President Donald Trump said Washington could wind down the conflict within weeks, while media reported Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was ready to end the war if Tehran received guarantees.

Market watchers said reassurance about that possibility led to gains in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, even as traders continued to price in rising energy costs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Let’s take a look at the factors that could have a major impact on Bitcoin’s price performance this new month.

Oil, Inflation and the Fed are currently in the middle of April trading

Mixed signals from the Middle East indicate that the macro environment will continue to have a significant impact this month.

Binance Research noted that the US-Iran ceasefire signal could prolong the recent crypto recovery, and that digital assets such as Ethereum are likely to outperform if risk appetite improves further.

However, the company also warned of the need for continued caution, as Iranian officials have described the contact as an exchange of messages rather than formal negotiations. The company said Israel’s war goals remain tougher than those of the United States, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ threats against major American companies remain a looming risk.

This view is very important to note given that the Iran war has caused the sharpest increase in oil price forecasts, with analysts now expecting Brent crude to average $82.85 per barrel in 2026, up from $63.85 in February.

Notably, Brent crude oil and US crude oil have both risen about 60% since the start of the conflict, a move that has a direct impact on inflation concerns and interest rate resets across global markets.

This effect makes the April macro calendar heavier than usual for Bitcoin traders. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar will post the March employment report on April 3, while the Fed’s April calendar will post the March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes on April 8, the Beige Book will post April 15, and the next Fed meeting minutes will appear on April 28-29.

Any signs that rising energy costs are impacting inflation expectations or that the Fed is less willing to ease would complicate the picture for a crypto rally.

Bitcoin enters April with hope and downside protection

Against this backdrop, crypto traders are heading into the new month hoping for a respite from Bitcoin’s historic performance in April.

April is often one of the better months for Bitcoin, with an average return of 33.4% and a median of 7.57%, according to CoinGlass data.

However, BIT (formerly Matrixport) noted that these patterns have become less reliable in recent years, especially when the asset enters a month with weak momentum.

According to the company, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 47%, meaning the digital asset is closer to last year’s starting point than the overheating that preceded the sharp correction in the early cycle.

On the practical side, the firm expects volatility to pick up from March’s range-bound trading as investors test whether the recent decline is stabilizing or extending into a broader reversal.

A crypto trader’s positioning in the options market strengthens that view. According to CME Group, open interest in Bitcoin options in March was approximately $660 million in calls and $240 million in puts, a ratio of nearly 3:1, indicating recovery demand by the end of the first quarter.

However, the long-term positioning is more defensive, with more open interest in puts than calls with June expirations.

This view is consistent with how Bitcoin traded throughout the first quarter. The market has shown enough buying interest to regain major round numbers after the sell-off, but there hasn’t been enough follow-through to restore confidence right away.

ETF and institutional investor flows soften

This lack of belief is reflected in institutional demand for flagship digital assets.

Digital asset investment products saw their first outflow in five weeks in the week ended March 30, with $414 million leaving the sector, according to CoinShares. Bitcoin products accounted for $194 million of this, but year-to-date net inflows remain positive at $964 million.

CoinShares links this reversal to the protracted Iran conflict, rising inflation risks, and changing market expectations for a potential rate hike rather than a rate cut by June.

Glassnode data points in the same direction. The seven-day moving average of net inflows for U.S. spot ETFs turned negative early last week, with daily net outflows ranging from 200 to 500 Bitcoin, according to the analytics firm.

While this number is small compared to the spot ETF’s biggest week of inflows since its inception, it suggests that institutional demand is no longer acting as a clean stabilizer at current prices.

At the same time, government bond purchases by companies other than Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have slowed significantly, leaving Bitcoin without the broad institutional support that helped sustain its initial rally.

With ETF flows slowing and demand for government bonds contracting, markets enter April with less cushion against new macro stress.

What will happen to Bitcoin price in April?

Putting these factors together, Bitcoin enters April with support in place, but without a clear outright signal.

BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas said $66,000 remains a level to watch this month. According to her, sustaining these levels would support the case for consolidation after a volatile quarter, while a breakout could cause Bitcoin to fall further.

Meanwhile, crypto market maker Wintermute said that a credible diplomatic development and oil retreating towards $100 could push the short side towards $70,000-$74,000, after which resistance around $74,000 could come into focus if tensions continue to ease.

However, a fresh rally coupled with oil prices climbing toward $120 would clear the way back to the low $60,000s, and if a similar cycle holds, the low to mid-$50,000s would be back on the table.

recent crypto slate Research shows that April seasonality brings a weak tailwind, but it is not a signal. The historically strong monthly returns contrast with a broader pattern in which years that start with similarly weak first-quarter conditions rarely end higher, with macro and flow burdens rather than calendar effects.