Bitcoin (BTC) is once again moving within a narrow band, with price movements subdued despite changes in macro signals and renewed debate over whether the cryptocurrency’s long-observed four-year cycle still applies.
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As traders react to a mixed message from the Federal Reserve, institutional trends and growing caution across risk markets, analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin’s latest consolidation signals stability or a deeper change in how the asset operates.
BTC's price trends downwards on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Analysts question whether the cycle is over.
A growing number of major companies are claiming that Bitcoin could surpass its historic halving rhythm. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent report that the asset is in a “tight bull cycle” with minimal ETF outflows despite a correction of nearly 30%.
The company raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, forecasting a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027, and maintaining its long-term estimate of $1 million in 2033.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood echoed this view, saying institutional adoption reduces the likelihood of a steep 75-90% decline seen in previous cycles. Grayscale also suggested that Bitcoin could break its four-year pattern and see renewed strength in 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000 to $93,000 depending on location, and recent intraday movements highlight the lack of strong directional certainty.
Fed signal draws market attention
The Fed’s 25bps rate cut initially boosted risk sentiment, but the momentum quickly reversed with a shift to cautious and data-dependent language.
Bitcoin and Ethereum fell following the announcement, with BTC falling below $90,000 at one point as traders reassessed the macro backdrop. Liquidity remains tight, leading to choppy movements across major cryptocurrency assets.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s failure to maintain its upward trend despite the dollar’s weakness and the Federal Reserve’s relaxed stance reflects continued uncertainty. Some commentators say BTC needs to hold above $90,000 to avoid strengthening bearish pressure, and if inflows improve, a break above $94,500 could reopen the path to $100,000.
Derivatives and On-Chain Data Flag Rising Bearish Sentiment
Options and on-chain indicators also signal caution. Traders increased their bearish options positions as put/call ratios turned positive ahead of significant expiration periods. More than $500 million in cryptocurrency liquidations occurred within 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility.
On-chain data shows bullish momentum decreasing. The Bitcoin Bullish Index has fallen back to zero, and realized losses suggest further declines are possible. Analysts warn that despite the past bearish pattern, current numbers do not yet reflect levels associated with a market bottom.
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As Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, the broader debate remains unresolved. Whether the four-year cycle fades or simply freezes will depend on how markets digest macro uncertainties, institutional trends and the next generation of economic data.
ChatGPT, BTUSD chart cover image by Tradingview
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