Convinced Bitcoin whales have made a $2 billion bet that the worst is over and the market may reach a bottom after a brutal leverage washout strips the speculative bubble from the crypto market.
On November 24th, Deribit, a crypto options trading platform owned by Coinbase, reported a notional block trade of 20,000 BTC, which appears to indicate that institutional capital is pivoting from damage control to strategic accumulation.
According to the platform:
“[The]trader pulled up the long-term 100,000/106,000/112,000/118,000 call condors in December 2019. The signal is clear: a structured bullish view, expecting BTC to reach the 100,000-118,000 zone and not exploding beyond it.”
What does this deal imply?
This position effectively bets that the recent liquidation cascade marks a cycle-defining bottom, clearing the runway for a march toward six digits.
Indeed, the trade structure is accurate. By buying call options at $100,000 and $118,000 and selling calls at $106,000 and $112,000, the investor is targeting a specific profit corridor.
This represents a bet that BTC will recover and settle into a higher valuation band, but without the chaotic volatility that characterized the recent crash.
On the other hand, this positioning has reached a critical juncture. Although retail investors remain hesitant, the derivatives market shows that structural damage has been repaired.
Therefore, this trade suggests that the recent $27,000 plunge from the highs was a necessary cleansing event to reset the board for the next leg of the cycle.
1.3 million BTC flash
To understand the conviction behind the $1.7 billion bet, you have to look at the scale of the wreckage left behind. The market just endured the steepest contraction of the entire open interest cycle.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin-equivalent open interest has plummeted by about 1.3 million BTC over the past 30 days. Most of this unwinding occurred on Binance, definitively ending the speculative fever that had previously driven total open interest to all-time highs.
The size of this capitulation reflects the depth of the bear market in 2022. As a result, BTC’s recent decline from $106,000 to around $79,500 was primarily caused by a mechanical liquidation cascade rather than a fundamental collapse.
This means that a healthy correction turned into a crash as traders holding long positions were wiped off the board in a violent feedback loop.
However, historical patterns suggest that these “cleansing stages” are often bullish signals.
By forcing out overly optimistic positions and purging weak hands, the market builds a more stable floor. Reduced speculative exposure means the selling pressure from distressed leverage is gone.
Whales gather, retailers flee
Meanwhile, beneath the surface of the derivatives flash, on-chain data reveals clear changes in ownership that support the bottoming theory.
The market is moving from aggressive selling to orderly unwinding. Key stress indicators, such as changes in transfers and realized capital, which characterize late-cycle adjustments, have subsided.
More importantly, there are clear differences between investor cohorts. While retail investors (those holding less than 10 BTC) have been net sellers over the past 60 days, mid-sized “sharks” and institutional investors are entering the market.
CryptoQuant data shows that BTC cohorts holding 100-1,000 BTC, as well as BTC cohorts holding 10,000 BTC or more, have steadily accumulated throughout the sell-off period. These sophisticated players are absorbing supplies distributed by fearsome retailers.
However, the only headwind that remains is the 1,000-10,000 BTC cohort that continues to be distributed.
Therefore, selling in this group will need to slow for the recovery to transition into a solid reversal. So the $1.7 billion option bet is an early indicator that the “smart money” believes this change is imminent.
macro pivot point
At the same time, the timing of whale trades predicts favorable changes in the macro environment. Over the next week, important economic indicators such as US PPI and PCE statistics are scheduled to be released, which will determine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
Markets have priced in an 81% chance of a rate cut, and a dovish data bias would provide immediate liquidity support for risky assets.
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin said: crypto slate He said the increased likelihood of a rate cut has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent rally above $87,000.
“If sentiment holds, we could see further upside in the short term, especially if longs are underweight,” he said, but cautioned that optimism is “slight” given the FOMC’s divided opinion and the lack of hard data yet.
Pucklin added that the Fed’s next decision could determine whether the end of the year results in a “Santa rally” or a “Santa dump,” and he expects the uncertainty to continue into the Dec. 10 meeting.
In this context, the Cole Condor functions as a strategic vehicle. The large size of the position results in large hedging flows by the dealer. As the price moves towards the $100,000 activation zone, the dealer who sold the structure will be forced to hedge their exposure, creating a magnetic pull towards the profit band.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin
