Matt Hogan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, said Bitcoin could post steady gains over the next decade, but it’s unlikely to post exceptionally large year-over-year gains.
“I think we’re striving for strong returns over a 10-year period. It’s not spectacular returns, but () strong returns, low volatility, some ups and downs,” Hogan told CNBC on Friday.
Hogan stands by his prediction that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin (BTC), first sharing this outlook in July, before Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,100 in October. “I think it’s over next year,” Hogan said.
“Buying by slow-moving institutional investors” is protecting Bitcoin’s downward price
Meanwhile, ReserveOne Chief Investment Officer Sebastian Bo said it is still unclear whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “dead.” “The all-time high was $125,000, and that was in early October. Now it’s nearing $87,000, and it’s down 30% relatively quickly, which is pretty painful,” Bo said.
Market participants are divided on whether the cycle is over, with the timing of Bitcoin’s October high mirroring the peak of the previous four-year cycle and suggesting a decline could occur in 2026.
Hogan said a “fast-moving retail population” was behind Bitcoin’s year-end decline, as retail investors took turns “in anticipation of that four-year cycle.”
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $87,818 at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan appeared on CNBC on Friday. sauce: CNBC
Hogan said the reason Bitcoin is down 30%, rather than the 60% decline seen in past cycles, is due to “sustained, slow-moving institutional buying.”
However, some analysts remain cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
The Trump administration is unlikely to have a major impact on Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin started 2025 at a new all-time high near $109,000 following Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, which was widely seen as the catalyst for the asset’s early year rally.
However, Hogan said it is unlikely that the Trump administration will deliver any further upside to the price of Bitcoin. “There’s not much more they can barely do with Bitcoin,” Hogan said, noting that the asset’s regulatory position has become clearer.
Related: Bitcoin will enter a bear market in 2025, a “10-year” bull market is ahead of it: Grass
Mr Bo shared a similar view. “We know this is a commodity asset, and that’s clearly stated by the SEC,” he said.
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