“Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands recently reached record tightness,” Certified Market Technologist Tony Severino reported on Wednesday.
So far, the cryptocurrency has not been able to move above the upper band with any strength, despite reaching an all-time high of $126,000 earlier this week.
Based on historical local price ranges, “it could take as long as 100 days to achieve a valid breakout (or breakout if BTC drops sharply),” he said.
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool used to measure market volatility and identify potential overbought or oversold assets.
Likelihood of being parabolic
The analyst added that expanding from such a squeeze setting could lead to a “head fake” that may have been seen in the latest move.
“We may also see another head fake down from here before eventually taking off higher,” he added.
“This could lead to a parabolic rise in Bitcoin or the end of a mature three-year bull market.”
“Although external fundamentals look positive, Bitcoin’s breakout of new peaks still appears to be a long way from the cycle peak,” said Mark Moss, chief strategist at Satsuma Technology.
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“Unlike 2021, the Fed is not tightening, it is easing, ETFs and BTC (Treasury Bonds) are causing the biggest demand shocks, and the world is waking up to the ‘downgrade trade.’”
Uptober is still on track
Despite falling 2.5% to the $121,000 level today, Bitcoin’s “uptober” is still on track, with the asset up 7% so far this month. According to Coinglass, BTC has rallied 10 times in the past October and 8 out of 12 times in the last quarter.
Meanwhile, analyst Sycoderic is one of many who argue that the four-year cycle is over. “The clear fact here is that Bitcoin has quite a large area to expand before reaching the end of the price cycle,” he said on Wednesday.
“We see $100,000 resistance turning into $100,000 support, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin doesn’t fall below $100,000 again,” said Plan B, creator of the stock-to-flow model.
The closing price in September was six digits for five consecutive months, and the same was true for $10, $100, $1,000, and $10,000.
