Bitcoin prices may bottom sooner than many investors expected, according to cryptocurrency management company Bitwise.
Recent analysis published by the company’s European research arm suggests that the widely adopted four-year cycle model may be self-defeating this time.
Andre Dragos, head of research at Bitwise Europe, pointed out that according to the traditional four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin is expected to reach its peak in October 2025 and bottom around October 2026. But Dragos says this timeline is firmly entrenched in investor consensus.
“This expectation is deeply ingrained in the investor consensus. Right now, the eight-month period is an overwhelmingly crowded view,” Dragosh said, arguing that having a large number of investors focused on the same timeline could cause markets to move faster.
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through bullish and bearish cycles, usually following a halving that occurs every four years. Historically, prices peak within 12 to 18 months after a halving, followed by a decline that lasts about a year.
In this context, Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, is expected to bottom around October 2026 according to classical models. Current price levels are trading at approximately 50% below peak levels.
“Recent market peaks have largely followed the traditional four-year cycle pattern,” Dragosh commented. But here lies the real risk, according to Bitwise. If the majority of investors expect an October 2026 bottom, more sophisticated investors may “price in” this expectation and buy earlier.
In this scenario, most investors would wait until October 2026, but those who act early could see a bottom form as early as June or July 2026 before entering the market. Dragosh described this as “the possibility of purchasing in advance, following the traditional four-year timing rule.”
*This is not investment advice.
