Bitcoin recently tapped the $111K zone into the $111K zone before showing signs of rejection, wiping out buy-side liquidity. When the market pauses after a strong rally, technical and chain metrics suggest a potential pullback or integration phase, with traders focusing on the key levels of the next move.
Technical Analysis
Shayan Market
Daily Charts
BTC experienced a notable denial from the $111,000 supply zone after gaining buy-side liquidity above the January-February high. This movement caused an immediate drop and began fixing. Current price actions indicate low signs of potential continuity.
The daily RSI is also cooled, and is now hovering around the neutral 50 zone, indicating a pause in momentum. The 100 and 200-day moving averages remain bullishly aligned below the price (located in the $90,000-$95,000 range), with a fair value gap (FVG) visible between 101K and 98K.
However, despite rejection from the $111K level, the overall structure remains bullish, with prices still above the uptrend line and moving average. As long as the assets exceed the $91,000 demand zone, buyers are still structurally controlled. If FVG is filled and the reaction is strong, you can create a new high and set another stage of attempt to the $111K-114,000 resistance zone.
4-hour chart
Zooming into the 4H chart, BTC is broken under the ascending channel that has been guiding price action since early April. The breakdown was followed by a denial from the $100,000 zone, suggesting that previous support had turned into resistance.
Furthermore, the RSI for this time frame is just below 50, indicating that bearish momentum will gain status. There is also a clear range formed between $102,000 and $108,000, with the price after the initial sale vibrating within it.
Short-term traders need to pay close attention to the midrange, with their swings now at nearly $102,000. A break below this level can cause sharper movement towards a $10,000 support level.
On the back, regaining the $108,000 mark will disable the short-term bearish setup, with a higher range and will allow you to open the door for a retest for perhaps $111K. But as things stand, the market could undergo deeper revisions in the coming days.
On-Chain Analysis
Adjusted SOPR (30 Day EMA)
Bitcoin’s adjusted SOPR (ASOPR) 30-day exponential moving average is well above the 1.0 threshold, indicating that on average, the coins moving in the chain are making profits.
This generally reflects the trust of new investors. This is because the holder is willing to sell with profit rather than surrendering on loss. Historically, ASOPR values above 1.0 during uptrends support bullish continuation, especially when price adjustments are low.
However, current reading also suggests that the market is entering a more sensitive stage. When ASOPR rises too aggressively, it often leads to local tops as short-term holders rush to make a profit. The healthy trend is seen with a slight ASOPR reset above 1.0 and ideally aligns with a price pullback to the support zone before the next leg goes up.
