Cryptocurrency trader and entrepreneur Willy Wu has published a tweet commenting on the current state of the crypto market. He also shared his view on when the current bear market will end, showing the potential worst-case scenario and where it could push Bitcoin higher if it actually happens.
His prediction about the end of the bear market is consistent with analysis shared by CryptoQuant today.
Bitcoin worst-case scenario and theoretical drop to $16,000
The good news is that Willy Wu believes that the selling momentum by Bitcoin investors is fading. This means that Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways for about a month, he explains. A rebound into the mid-$70,000 range could occur, but he thinks it will “probably be rejected.”
This bearish selling by investors appears to have run out, giving prices perhaps a month or so to remain sideways and likely denying even a rebound into the mid-70s.
This is because the broader regime is very bearish in both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026
According to Wu, the main reason for this is that “the broader regime has become quite bearish,” which means liquidity is being drained from both the spot and futures crypto markets. Wu said Bitcoin is unlikely to rise “if both liquidity sources are bearish.” He attached a chart of the Bitcoin flow model to his tweet.
Wu offered an “educated guess” to the community, saying the fourth quarter of this year would be the perfect time for the bearish trend to end. As for the chances of bullish momentum returning, he said it would likely take place in the first or second quarter of 2027. But before that happens, Bitcoin could reach a “classic bear market bottom” of about $45,000 by the fourth quarter of this year.
Wu also envisions a worst-case scenario, although unlikely, for the world’s leading cryptocurrencies. If the broader global macroeconomic environment experiences significant negative changes, Bitcoin could crash until it finds support at the $16,000 per coin level.
High Probability Window of Bitcoin Bottom Named by CryptoQuant
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant used historical data from the past three Bitcoin halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020) to figure out when Bitcoin prices will reverse after the April 2024 halving.
There are three options, pointing to June, September, and October 2026, respectively, as when BTC could bottom out and start rising again. Historically, this is 777 to 925 days after the half-life.
Bottoms take time.
If this cycle reflects past structure after April 19, 2024:
2012 trace (777 days) → June 4, 2026 • 2016 trace (889 days) → September 24, 2026 • 2020 trace (925 days) → October 30, 2026.
This widens the timing window from June to December 2026. … pic.twitter.com/8w5WzgGNXb
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 26, 2026
