- Long-term Holders (LTH) selling is cool and eases sales pressure on Bitcoin prices.
- The BTC price is above $116,817 despite being rejected, despite being rejected.
- CPI data may determine the next major BTC price movement:
Bitcoin price forecasts show that BTC prices are stable as long-term holder sales become cooler.
Meanwhile, traders are looking at flows and macro prints on the chain for signs of movement in the next direction.
Long-term holders’ sell-off school
Long-term holders have significantly reduced daily sales, resulting in a clear change in retention.
After exceeding that threshold in July, daily LTH sales fell below $1 billion in August, and the shift removed significant sales pressure.
Furthermore, according to Coinglass, the reduction in the flow of coins to exchange is consistent with updated accumulation, which supports mild BTC prices close to current range levels.
On-chain evidence points to accumulation
The days of destroyed binary coins drop towards zero, indicating that the old coins are held longer as they are not moving.
Furthermore, the fund flow ratio is located at an unusually low level of around 0.057, suggesting that there are fewer assets sent to the exchange.
As a result, net inflows in the spot market, including the recent $51 million buyout date after the $242 million sale on August 10, strengthen the demand is steadily returning than before.
Triangle breakouts are retained, but risk remains
Technically, Bitcoin has penetrated upwards from the triangle and remains above the $116,817 breakout threshold.
However, recent attempts to clear $122,000 ended with rejection and a “gravestone” candlestick. Therefore, traders point out that the path to a new ATH may not be smooth.
Meanwhile, the CME futures gap near $117K and the 4-hour 200mA/EMA confluence adds short-term technical magnetism that could invite re-testing before a sustained push gets high.
CPI and FRB policies may tilt scale
Macrocatalysts are front and center as future US CPI figures will affect rate cut expectations and dollar strength.
If core inflation is higher than expected (for example, close to 3.1%), then the Fed cut odds for September are likely to drop, resulting in BTC prices being pressured.
Conversely, a softer CPI of nearly 2.9% will likely increase interest rate leads, weaken the dollar, and be updated due to crypto and BTC price momentum.
Two plausible paths for bitcoin traders
On the bullish road, continuous LTH holdings, stable capital inflows and recent breaks above highs could transport BTC to the $123,000-$125,000 zone.
On the bearish road, as some Wyckoff-Analysing Traders warn, markdowns can be opened towards areas with confirmed distribution stages between $92,000 and $95,000, and therefore traders should respect risk management.
$ BTC | Wyckoff Logic in Play📊
After being confirmed in March by strong accumulation stages and divergence of water-smashed RSI, BTC entered a strong markup stage and reached a new high.
Currently, price action shows signs of distribution stages – weak sideways movements…pic.twitter.com/ptdoosnndb
– Zayk Charts (@zaykcharts) August 12, 2025
Therefore, momentum and macroprinting determine whether the market will grind higher or re-enter the correction stage.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Traders Should Watch
See if BTC holds $116,817 and whether exchange inflows remain suppressed.
It also monitors short-term technical confluences and responses to CPI data at a CME gap of nearly $117K. Both can trigger quick movements.
Sentiment includes bullish voices like Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, who sees an underestimation of the structure, but traders need to be agile and factor in both robust targets and downside scenarios.
Current Bitcoin forecast balances improve on-chain accumulation against short-term macro risk, and this equilibrium shapes the general BTC price outlook.
