Arthur Hayes, a well-known figure in the crypto market, shared notable price scenarios for Bitcoin.
Hayes, an investor and chief information officer at Maelstrom Funds, argued that the Fed is effectively printing more money through new programs and suggested that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 in the first three months of 2026.
In his latest analysis, Hayes drew attention to a new program the Fed calls Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Although the Fed defines the program as a technical liquidity management tool, Hayes says the effects of RMP are identical to those of classic quantitative easing (QE) policies. “Once the market starts to equate RMP with QE, Bitcoin will quickly regain $124,000 and approach $200,000 in the short term,” Hayes said.
Under Hayes’ scenario, the Fed would purchase approximately $40 billion worth of short-term Treasury securities each month under the RMP. The Fed is presenting the measure not as a stimulus package but as a technical regulation to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. But Hayes argues that these purchases ultimately inject new money into the market and have the same effect as past quantitative easing programs. Additionally, unlike previous quantitative easing programs, RMP does not have a specific cap or end date.
According to experienced investors, this mechanism works very easily. The Fed creates new money and uses it to buy government bonds. Financial institutions that sell bonds use the new liquidity they receive to buy more bonds or lend to hedge funds. Ultimately, this money funds government spending, spreads throughout the economy, and drives up the prices of many assets, from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Hayes sharply described the situation: “This is not QE. This is money printing presses running at full speed.”
Recently, the Federal Reserve has been using cautious language to lower interest rates. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-December, the policy interest rate was cut by 25 basis points. However, the disagreement within the committee was notable. Two members advocated keeping interest rates on hold, and one member supported more accommodative monetary policy.
Arthur Hayes believes that in the short term, Bitcoin could remain in the $80,000 to $100,000 range until the end of 2025. He said this is largely because investors still believe the Fed’s assertion that “this is not a money-printing program.” According to Hayes, this perception will change by 2026 and the market will start pricing in the true impact of RMP (return on investment).
*This is not investment advice.
