Ethereum price has risen 2.7% in the past seven days, but has fallen 1.8% in the past 24 hours, trading around $1,960. Although modest, this move parallels Ethereum ETF inflows increasing for the second straight week, a pattern that has historically preceded a rally (or rebound), depending on how you look at it.
The development of a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart adds further weight to the view that a recovery in Ethereum price may be forming.
ETF Flows Show a Familiar Signal, RSI Divergence Confirms It
Ethereum spot ETF outflows turned positive for the second consecutive week after a prolonged period of outflows. According to the data, the last red week ended on February 20th, with net outflows reaching -$123 million and Ethereum price hovering at $1,970. Since then, there have been two green weeks.
This is important given the past two events where Ethereum ETF flows reversed from red to green.
First, it recorded $500 million in outflows for the week ending November 21st. $ETH Approximately $2,730. The following week, it rose to +$313 million, and Ethereum’s price soared to over $3,050, an 11.6% increase.
In the second example, for the week ending January 9th, $ETH Approximately $3,070. It turned positive the following week at +$479 million, pushing the price up 7.1% to $3,290.
Ethereum ETF Weekly Flow: SoSoValue
The average movement rate for both flips is approximately 10%. After the red close on February 20th, two consecutive green weeks have been confirmed, so the same pattern may occur again.
This is supported by the bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence on the daily chart. From January 25th to March 3rd, Ethereum price has formed further lows. The RSI, a momentum indicator, has made new lows, which is a typical rebound signal. This is usually a sign of a trend reversal, but in the current market conditions it could end up being a pullback.
The March 3rd candle has a swing low forming through its wick, and the immediate rebound case remains active. However, if the next candle breaks below $1,920, that swing low will be broken and the immediate rebound will weaken.
$ETH RSI Divergence”>
$ETH RSI Divergence: TradingView
As prices remain below the January 25 swing low, the broader divergence structure remains in place.
Supply clusters map key resistances
To understand where selling pressure may occur during a recovery, Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) can help identify the most valuable price levels. $ETH Supplies were last traded. Traditionally a UTXO-based metric, Glassnode applies it in a generalized form to account-based networks like Ethereum.
($ETH URPD: Glassnode)
The first significant cluster is around $2,020. This accounts for approximately 1.47% of the total. $ETH supply. This concentration of supply means acquiring a large number of holders $ETH This level. In any recovery attempt, these holders may consider exiting near the break-even point, creating a potential wall of selling pressure.
$ETH URPD $2,020 Cluster: Glassnode
Above that, a heavier zone forms between $2,120 and $2,170. The $2,120 level holds 0.72% of the supply, and the $2,170 level holds 0.76%, for a total of 1.5% of the total. $ETH.
$ETH URPD $2,120 Cluster: Glassnode
This makes it one of the densest resistance clusters around the current price and a zone where confidence is truly tested.
$ETH URPD $2,170 Cluster: Glassnode
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However, if Ethereum price maintains its daily close without rejecting these clusters, it would be a sign of something important. This could mean that these holders are choosing to hold rather than sell, reflecting their growing confidence. And that confidence may be fueled by the very inflows into the ETF, which is now turning positive, giving holders a reason to remain patient rather than exiting at breakeven.
This is where the URPD cluster connects directly with the price chart.
Ethereum price levels connect ETF clues and charts
Fibonacci levels drawn from the February 5th swing give structure to the recovery path. This Fib path still relies on a bearish bias and focuses on the downside impulse wave and subsequent rebound. As a broader trend, $ETH It remains bearish, down almost 13% month-over-month.
Levels now map almost directly to URPD clusters.
The first barrier is in the $2,040 zone. On the Fibonacci chart, $2,040 marks the 0.236 level. In URPD, $2,020 is a 1.47% supply cluster. These two levels are practically adjacent, so this will be your first real test. A daily close above $2,040 would mean the $2,020 supply cluster remained unsold, a sign of increasing confidence.
If we can clear that, our next target will be $2,140. URPD is located inside the $2,120-$2,170 resistance zone. $ETH The supply is sitting. And importantly, the rise from the ETF reversal level of $1,970 to $2,140 on February 20th represents an increase of almost 10%. This matches the historical average when Ethereum ETF flows turned from red to green.
$ETH price analysis”>
$ETH Price analysis: TradingView
The triple convergence of Fibonacci, URPD cluster, and ETF lead makes $2,140 the level where clues hidden in ETFs will try their luck.
On the downside, the closest support is $1,930 (0.5 fib). Below that, $1,920 is the swing low. Although the break weakens the likelihood of an immediate RSI rebound, the broader divergence structure remains intact. A break below $1,810 (0.786 Fib) completely negates the divergence, exposing $1,720 and creating a deeper Fibonacci extension of $1,460.
The post “Ethereum ETF flows hide clues to 10% price recovery” was first published on BeInCrypto.
