Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex’s latest report reveals that the recent sharp market decline was not a collapse but a controlled phase of consolidation.
According to the report, Bitcoin has fallen 21.46% from its all-time high in October last week, briefly falling below $100,000 to $99,045. However, the move does not signal the beginning of a broader liquidation, rather a search for a new bottom.
Bitfinex claims that both historical price data and on-chain metrics suggest that the current movement closely reflects the mid-stage correction seen in previous cycles. These periods involve structural investors locking in positions, reallocating capital within the ecosystem, and compressing volatility ahead of a big rally.
Bitcoin’s failure to adhere to the $112,500 short-term investor (STH) cost floor led to a controlled price decline and a retest of deep support levels. The move appears to be a planned correction, according to the report.
At these levels, approximately 72% of Bitcoin’s supply is still in the profit zone, which is below the 70-90% equilibrium band typical of mid-cycle consolidations. This structure suggests that the market has largely wiped out excess speculation.
Bitfinex cites active trader realized price of $88,500 as the next major downside threshold. In past cycles, this region has been the point where selling pressure transitions into reaccumulation. While a short-term upside reaction is expected, a sustained recovery will require renewed strength in institutional investors and retail demand.
The report also highlights growing macro uncertainty. While corporate borrowing is recovering, there are growing signs of a slowdown in employment. Although official data is lacking, private sector indicators suggest that the U.S. labor market is deteriorating more rapidly than expected.
According to the October ADP National Employment Report, only 42,000 new jobs were created. While nearly all of the new jobs came from large companies, small and medium-sized businesses continued to cut staff for the third month in a row. Consumer confidence fell 6% in November, suggesting households are starting to feel the effects of the employment slowdown and political uncertainty.
According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency industry is entering a new phase of mainstream adoption due to rapid growth in stablecoin volumes and increasing regulatory measures worldwide.
In October 2025, the monthly trading volume of Ethereum-based stablecoins reached an all-time high of $2.82 trillion. This represents a 45% increase compared to the previous month. The main factors behind this surge were investors moving to dollar-denominated stablecoins as the market retreated, and Ethereum’s growing Layer 2 network offering faster and cheaper transactions.
Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has approved a new stablecoin pilot involving Japan’s three largest banks, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, and SMBC Bank. The program, scheduled to start in November 2025, aims to test digital payment systems that will be regulated under the new financial law.
*This is not investment advice.
