Ethereum price: A three-day rebound from the $2,860 demand zone has brought the price back to the middle of its recent range, with Ethereum price trading near $3,165 today. While this pullback has eased downward pressure, the larger structure remains unchanged, with sellers still defending the moving average and Fibonacci convergence levels near $3,261 and $3,351.
A trendline break is a signal of short-term weakness
ETH price analysis (Source: TradingView)
On the daily chart, Ethereum remains below the major downtrend line drawn from the October high. Price failed to regain the zone around $3,261 to $3,351, which includes the 0.618 and 0.786 retracements, the 50-day EMA, and the lower side of the previous breakdown level. Sellers aggressively defended that area, rejecting the price above the Bollinger Band and forcing a pullback towards intraday support.
With the price below the 200-day EMA at $3,472, Ethereum is in a correction structure rather than a recovery trend. The 20EMA and 50EMA are sloping downward, creating a resistance ceiling for traders until the market proves otherwise. As long as prices remain compressed under this cluster, the structure will remain weak.
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Support is at $3,081, with greater risk towards $3,016 and $2,864 if the rejection is extended. The high-low near $2,860 remains a key level that will determine whether the rally continues. Losing that floor would reset the broader structure, exposing lows from $2,618.
The intraday structure shows tightness.
Intraday analysis of ETH (Source: TradingView)
A shorter time frame indicates that the price is trapped within a symmetrical structure with higher lows and lower highs. Ethereum is trading near $3,177, nearing the top of the pattern, but momentum remains weak. The RSI remains neutral after a series of bearish divergences and the MACD is flattening around the zero line.
This intraday build suggests that traders are waiting for new information before committing. A break above $3,200 will put pressure on the shorts, but a sharp expansion will require volume and a clean close above the cap. Without that confirmation, prices risk entering a further compression phase and ultimately falling further.
Shifting the narrative to macro-optimism
Macro sentiment improved following Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s bullish forecast. He argued that crypto prices are likely forming a cyclical bottom and that the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio is positioned for a structural breakout rather than a short-term price rally.
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Lee predicts that Bitcoin will reach $300,000 by the end of 2026, with adoption expected to increase 200 times. The chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies also expects a new high in early 2026, reinforcing his long-term bullish view on the sector.
ETH ETF Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Spot ETF data shows a clear reversal of positions on December 4th, with a net outflow of 13.02,000 ETH recorded while the price was trading around $3,187. The change marks one of the most significant negative flowprints in recent weeks, following a brief rebound from the late November crash.
outlook. Will Ethereum go up?
If Ethereum breaks through $3,351 on increased volume, there is a risk that the trend will move higher towards $3,551 and eventually $3,893, where major supply remains. A level above $3,472 would reverse sentiment and indicate buyers are ready to compete.
If the price loses $3,081 and falls below $3,016, the downside opens towards $2,864, with greater risk towards $2,618 if ETF flows turn negative again. The market will remain in a correction structure until proven otherwise, and momentum is in favor of sellers until price confidently regains the EMA cluster.
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