Ether (ETH) prices have risen 6.4% since March 30th, at $1,768 lower at $1,768, while AltCoin is struggling to regain its $2,000 level. Some traders believe the recession is partially connected to the Defrate Memocoin market. Although this is not exclusive to Ethereum networks, it significantly reduced activity across the distributed application (DAPPS) ecosystem and the broader crypto space.
Currently, ether has fallen 44% since the start of the year, and derivatives metrics show that traders are far from bullish and show little confidence in a strong recovery in the short term. The evidence for this lies in the premiums of ether futures compared to the spot market.
The figure rose to 4% on April 2, up from 2% on March 31, but is still below the neutral 5% threshold. The data shows that despite increased support at the $1,800 price level, ether investors remain far from bullish.
Ether 2-month futures annual insurance premium. Source: laevitas.ch
To assess whether whales and market makers are confident in the performance of ether, we need to analyze the ETH options market. Under neutral conditions, 25% delta skew should balance call (buy) and put (sell) options, typically in the range -6% to 6%.
DERIBIT ETH 30 Day Option 25% Delta Skew (Put-Call). Source: laevitas.ch
The ether delta skew metric has receved from the 9% level seen on March 31, but the current 7% reading suggests that risk aversion feelings remain. The rising costs of hedges indicate that whales fear even more downsides for ETH, suggesting that traders will take time to regain confidence.
Despite Dapps’ revenue decline, Ethereum adoption remains strong
The majority of the ether price drop is attributed to a 49% decline in Ethereum Dapps revenue between January and March. However, while reducing network activity limits the influx of new users and weakens the overall demand for ETH, its advantage over traditional financial markets and its advantage in decentralized finance (DEFI) has not changed.
Ethereum’s Stablecoin Holdings is nearing an all-time high of $124.5 billion, and Ethereum remains an uncontroversial leader with a total locked total (TVL) of $49 billion. This data suggests the important possibility of ETH adoption, especially as new use cases emerge, such as more complex debt applications that utilize structured products and synthetic assets.
Despite the early struggles in metaverse applications, a decline in interest in memokine, and a sharp slump in inappropriate token (NFT) market activity, the Ethereum network continues to expand.
ETH funding rates are neutral as ETFS attenuates retail trading enthusiasm
Rather than focusing solely on how professional traders are positioned, it is also worth evaluating the sentiment of retail investors. Permanent futures (reverse swaps) usually follow closely to spot prices, as leverage imbalances are corrected at a fee known as the funding rate charged every eight hours. In neutral markets, this rate fluctuates between 0.1% and 0.3% over seven days.
Persistent futures financing rate of 8 hours of ether. Source: laevitas.ch
ETH’s permanent funding rate has been neutral since March 31st, indicating that retailers are not trying to catch a falling knife. The key factor behind this lack of enthusiasm is the Spot Ether Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) which has seen net spills of $37 million over the past two weeks.
Derivative data often appear backwards and does not necessarily indicate further declines in ETH prices, but the sentiment could change quickly given the positive momentum from Trump’s world-free financial investment from Eric Trump’s vocal support for Eric Trump’s ether. For now, professional traders and retail investors continue to be cautious about ETH price outlook.
