Bitcoin crossed the six-figure line for the first time in March this year, drifting away in April near a high $90,000 area. It opened in May for $96,505 and printed a new record of $111,700 on May 22, a 15.7% advance in three weeks.
Prices have since exceeded $107,000, but derivatives sales have risen much higher, indicating where risk-taking is concentrated.
During April, the market averaged 32,403 BTC in daily spot volume and 439,043 BTC in futures venues, placing the spot-to-derivative ratio at 0.0739. Throughout May, these figures were slid to 23,766 BTC and 350,734 BTC, respectively. This pushed the ratio down to 0.0702 and increased the derivative share of total activity to 93.7%.
Totalized on 26 observed trading days, providing a spot turnover of 618,000 BTC against 912 million BTC at Futures Books. In terms of dollars, using daily closings equals about $67 billion in cash transactions and more than $990 billion in futures exposure. This is the lowest ratio since 2023 and shows how much the market has moved towards contract-based activity since the ETF arrived in early 2024.
On the first trading day of the month, there was a 9,435 BTC deal in the spotbook against the future 377,196 BTC, a ratio of 0.0746. On May 22nd, spottick reached 31,599 BTC and derivatives rose sharply to 467,328 BTC. The ratio was compressed to 0.0677. By May 26th, price cooling had fallen to $109,460 and spot volume had dropped to 14,967 BTC, but futures still printed 289,617 BTC, leaving a ratio of 0.0597, the lowest level for the month.
Open interest continued in volume. The value of futures trapped in the contract rose from $658.1 billion on May 18 to $809.1 billion on May 22. The Jump is on record price, pushing the OI to market cap ratio above 0.05 for the first time, flagging gearing factors above 1:20 at many venues.
The pattern is clear. For each leg where the price was higher, futures turnover rates increased proportionally, but as the peak was printed, demand for spots disappeared. This profile points to price discoveries driven by fundraising-backed positioning rather than full purchases on cash exchanges. With more than nine of the 10 coins traded cycling on repeated contracts, small amounts of funding adjustments can quickly amplify price fluctuations.
Funding rates already reflect heavier gearing. Data from May 21 to May 23 shows an increase in open profit weighted rates between 0.0061% and 0.0181% before returning to 0.0064%. That bump is on par with record highs, indicating that spot flow was not needed after permanent costs were positive. If the rate becomes negative, the same mechanism can reduce the price by position trimming the mass.
Spot Exchange trading funds add another variable. The net inflow between May 15th and May 22nd was $2.1 billion, but the price increase was well above that cash when measured against derivative volumes. When spot desks become quiet, massive ETF redemptions can drive liquidity seekers into the futures market and highlight the movement.
Institutional traders clearly support derivatives over spots. In the week of the record, the US 10-year yield eased 8 basis points, with the dollar index falling 0.6%. The base deal that cuts the previous month and buys spots to earn funds was slightly narrower in line with harvest movements, but it wasn’t wide enough to lure wholesale pivots into the cash market.
Until observable cash purchases are strengthened, the market will sit in a tower of geared positions where profits and drawdowns can be expanded. The sustained rebound of spot share creates a more solid foundation for Bitcoin prices, but another sharp fix could expose Bitcoin prices to forced rewind from the derivatives market.
The Post Futures Desk created nine of the 10 Bitcoin transactions in May, but the slower spot activity was first introduced in Cryptoslate.
