Bitcoin’s next move could be inspired by gold’s rally, according to analyst Colin Tokes Crypto, who has tracked a historical pattern in which gold led Bitcoin by about 80 days. His latest overlay compares BTC, gold, and global M2 and shows that gold is running at breakneck speed while Bitcoin is lagging behind.
If the lead lag holds, the reading is straightforward in that BTC’s handoff window is set for late December to January, but the timing depends on when gold momentum cools and how global liquidity signals align.
Gold vs BTC
Gold tends to lead Bitcoin. In the following chart gold has been shifted forward by 80 days.
If (and I mean if) BTC decides to follow gold's move, this would be a pretty sweet November and December, with a top potentially in late December or January (whenever gold… pic.twitter.com/IkwpIKKZG8
— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) October 21, 2025
Why is gold lead important now?
Gold prices reached new highs in October, and prices rose accordingly. In Colin’s cycle work, the Gold Line’s rise often precedes a Bitcoin push with a lag, and traders treat this as an indication of timing rather than a target price.
Related: Gold’s 2025 Rally (12 ATH) Draws Comparisons with Bitcoin Price Movements
Bitcoin and global liquidity
The comparison chart positions Global M2 as a central indicator of the role of liquidity in Bitcoin price movements. Historically, when M2 expands, liquidity flows into risky assets, often increasing the value of Bitcoin.
Colin observed that M2 trends tend to precede Bitcoin price movements by about 80 days, highlighting Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global financial expansion.
Source:X
Since January 2024, after the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, Bitcoin and M2 have worked together, demonstrating a closer connection between institutional liquidity and the crypto market. However, over the past three months, that relationship has weakened, the weakest since the ETF’s approval, indicating a possible decoupling phase.
What causes the correlation signal to weaken near the peak?
Colin’s backtest shows decoupling near the peak of the previous cycle. This pattern does not predict an exact high, but it does warn that Bitcoin could lag gold and M2 before pushing up late in the cycle. That’s why the next few months are so important.
Solid policy-driven liquidity cues could see the M2 link tighten again and move BTC forward. If gold cools but liquidity remains patchy, follow-through will slide into early 2026.
What could change the course of BTC next?
- Liquidity Impulse: Clear easing and balance sheet expansion by major central banks will tighten the link between BTC and M2 and improve timing reliability.
- Gold Momentum Decline: Gold rollover starts BTC handoff clock under 80-day framework.
- Risk-off shock: A policy surprise or funding stress could delay the handoff and keep BTC range-bound.
Related: Raul Pal predicts Bitcoin peak in 2026 despite debt transfers
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