Gold has shed tears in 2025 and is rallying at an all-time high of over $3,400 as investors seek safety in a turbulent macro environment. The profits of precious metals from the start of the year are steadily gaining in double digits, reflecting the demand for robust, safe shelters.
The gold sprint to new highs and the choppy start of Bitcoin this year may seem different on the surface. However, both assets are reacting to the same macro script. Trust in Fiat Money, unstable geopolitics, and highly negative real yields. A detailed reading of market data shows that the “digital gold” story is on fire, and even though Bitcoin’s price action is lagging behind, two valuable stores move more frequently, for the same reasons.
Gold came in at $2,600 in nearly 2025, adding about a third of its price and about $9 trillion to global market capitalization. Bitcoin opened nearly $92,000 a year, slipping into the early $83,000 with tariff-driven risk aversion, and is now about $88,700, down about 4% so far.
The gap is harsh, but the correlation is a different story. Patterns seen with rolling correlation coefficients for 30, 90 and 365 days echo the previous cycle. This is first at a gold gathering as a liquidity hedge, and then Bitcoin catches up when Bitcoin begins his hunt for a higher betta expression of the same paper.
The combination of macroeconomic factors underpins the explosive gold gathering.
The 10-year-old Treasury is hovering near 4.5%, but with core inflation below 5%, locking actual yields below zero. In this environment, couponless assets suddenly offer relative appeal. The zero yield nature of gold was once a drawback. When money actually loses value, the handicap evaporates. Bitcoin, which does not earn income, fits into the same playbook.
The Fed’s balance sheet is over $10 trillion, with a massive fiscal deficit on both sides of the Atlantic. Research work from the University of Michigan shows long-term inflation expectations at the highest level since 2013. Investors who are hoping to be debated for currency will first look gold, resulting in Bitcoin, where a supply of 21 million coins reflects the scarcity of gold
The war in Ukraine raised the illusion of spare confiscation and accelerated the purchase of gold to central banks in China, India and Gulf. These official flows totaled 1,136 tons in 2023 and an additional 388 tons in the first quarter of this year. Bitcoin is not yet a formal reserve asset, but the logic resonates. It cannot be frozen.
With each sanctions and tariff headlines intensify, both assets tend to solidify together, even if Bitcoin responds with extra volatility. The Trump administration’s plan to implement “cryptoprotected zoning” with ample Bitcoin holdings supports this further.
What’s more, the shaking of the world in fact The US dollar reserve currency forces many investors to stay away from cash and bonds. The weaker dollar expands both gold and bitcoin in dollar terms. The DXY index fell 5% from its peak in February to early April. Gold set daily records during that slide. Bitcoin has revolved 9% from the low prices of tariffs. Their sensitivity to greenbacks is another point of convergence.
Flowing into gold, Spot Bitcoin ETF reviews this paper further. Investment flows prove that institutions group assets in the same “soundmanny” bucket. Net inflows into gold-backed ETFs reached $8.2 billion in the first three months, reversing net sales for the second year in a row.
Meanwhile, Spot Bitcoin ETF, which is limited to US foreign markets and futures-based products, has withdrawn a net worth of around $540 million. The dollar amount will be smaller, but the directional alignment is clear. Capital search for inflation insurance spreads across both physical and ancient metals, the other digital and emergency.
However, with these shared drivers, Bitcoin has failed to match the Gold’s pace this year. This can be caused by several factors. First, $1.7 trillion in gold float dwarf Bitcoin. Large allocators can deploy sizes to gold without changing prices. A similar flow to Bitcoin moves the tape sharply and shifts the entry to the trader.
Second, the lack of federal regulations on Bitcoin is to keep many US asset managers and investors on the sidelines, even if they buy gold. Passing or eliminating the broader crypto regulatory agenda could unleash new demand later in the year.
Finally, tax-driven escapes in the quarter-end weighed more BTC than bullion, as equity traders still treat Bitcoin as a Hi-Beta technology proxy during sales. Past cycles show that if the macro driver controls, this equity beta disappears.
Correlation alone does not guarantee equal returns, but it shows that investors are increasingly aware of both assets through the same lens. All historic matches of money printing feature two stages of response. First, gold, then a heavy charging alternative.
Silver played its second role in the 1970s, while Bitcoin played its role in the 2010s. The 2025 setup is familiar. Negative returns in cash invite the continued demand for unchanging stores with no value. Central banks continue to absorb bullion. The facility is nibbling with Bitcoin products.
Once a new plateau of gold exceeds $3,000, becomes the market’s reference point, the monetary premium, which implies a $9 trillion jump in capitalization, suggests once again what gatekeepers are open to Bitcoin.
Post Gold’s Trillion Dollar climbing shows that there is room for Bitcoin to appear first in Cryptosrat.
