As the US dollar closes its supply of Bitcoin with a slump to three years of low and long-term holders, market conditions appear to be ready for a new leg. With Bitcoin surpassing the $107,000 mark, analysts point to the weakness of the macroeconomic and a strong convergence of strong on-chain foundations, which can encourage rallies of over $135,000.
CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin is trading above $107,000, holding more than $10,000 in the midst of macroeconomic debilitating and unprecedented long-term holding behavior.
The weakness of the dollar and the sudden rise in liquidity
According to Crypto analyst Lark Davis, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in three years, down 11% since the start of the year. At the same time, global M2 money supply – essentially the total economy liquidity reached an all-time high.
Historically, this environment of rich liquidity and low dollars has been a key driver of Bitcoin rallies. Simply put, more money, lower fiat value, and a higher desire for valued alternatives.
“I know what’s going to happen next,” Davis insanely posts, suggesting Bitcoin’s track record of explosive growth under similar conditions.
Dollar Index $DXY reached its lowest level in three years.
Meanwhile, the Global M2 continues to hit its all-time high.
You know what will happen next. pic.twitter.com/8wkgln5eba
– Lark Davis (@thecryptolark) June 26, 2025
Long term holders are locked in
On-chain analyst DarkFost shared data showing a historic surge in long-term holdings (LTH) Bitcoin supply. This hasn’t moved for over six months. These holdings entered the LTH category at a critical psychological and structural level of $95,000-$107,000.
Related: Michael Saylor calls Bitcoin “steel ship” as Fiat and Goldsink: Inside the $500 million shift
“This is only the sixth time in Bitcoin history, and we have seen such a strong commitment to maintaining these price levels,” DarkFost said, noting that the “LTH” designation could be better understood as a “coin age” rather than an address.
The change in behavior confirms that despite Bitcoin flirting at its highest ever height, a large cohort of investors is not planning to sell.
Wall Street’s risk-on sentiment boosts the crypto case
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Futures have risen 23% since April, reaching record highs as the S&P breached 6,145 points. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased trade tensions and eased the possibility of a Fed rate reduction as early as July.
The rise in stock futures indicates an increased desire for risk, and Bitcoin can historically make quick profits when the market moves into risk-on mode.
Source: TradingView
According to the chart above, Bollinger Bands (BB) shows that BTC is expanding its volatility and pushing its top band, so Bitcoin maintains a strong uptrend in its weekly time frame.
Related: Arthur Hayes on Stubcoin, Geopolitics and the Next Peak in Bitcoin
The balanced volume (OBV) remains rising at 16.28m, reflecting sustained purchasing pressure even at higher prices. This is a classic bull signal.
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