The Bitcoin market structure has evolved, and the once unpredictable four-year cycle may no longer retain the same association. In a recent conversation with the head analyst at Blockware Solutions, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro and lead analyst at Mitchell Askew, I shared his views on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advances, and how institutional adoptions shape the price behavior of assets.
View the full interview:
According to Askew, the historic pattern of rising parabolic prices for Bitcoin has shifted sharp drawdowns as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, mining is more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin supply and price trends.
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The Bitcoin market cycle is declining
Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycle of the bull and bear market of the past. Historically, halving the event reduced the rewards of miners, triggered supply shocks, and prompted rapid price increases, followed by over 70% revisions. However, an increase in institutional investors leads to a more structured, macro-driven market.
He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETF and Corporate Treasury allocations bring consistent demand to Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme booms and bust price movements. Unlike retailers who tend to buy sales of happiness and panic during recessions, institutions are more likely to sell strength and accumulate bitcoin at dips.
Askew also said that since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, price movements have been more measured and the integration period will be longer prior to continuous growth. This suggests that Bitcoin is beginning to behave like a traditional financial asset rather than a speculative, highly volatile market.
The role of Bitcoin mining in price stability
As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics affects price trends. He states that while many assume that the rise in hashrates is always bullish, the reality is more complicated.
In the short term, an increase in hashrate can be bearish. This is because it leads to an increase in Bitcoin sold to cover higher competition and electricity costs among miners. However, in the long run, the rise in hashrates reflects an increase in investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.
Another important observation from Askew is that Bitcoin hashrate growth is lagging behind price growth by 3-12 months. A sharp rise in Bitcoin prices will increase mining profitability and lead to more capital flowing into mining infrastructure. However, it takes time to deploy new mining rigs and set up the facility, and will delay the impact of the hashrate expansion.
Why mining profitability is stable?
Askew also emphasizes that mining hardware efficiency is reaching plateaus.
If you’re thinking about Bitcoin mining, you’ll need to look at this clip.
Mining hardware tends to portray very good for miners.
– Long machine life
– Slowing hashrate growth
– Increased delay between price growth and hashrate growthBitcoin…pic.twitter.com/h0zjscm7rc
– Mitchell
(@mitchellhodl) March 19, 2025
In the early days of Bitcoin, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, upgrading hardware every 1-2 years to miners to stay competitive. Today, however, the newer models are about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs were able to remain profitable for four to eight years, leading to pressure on miners to continually reinvest in new equipment.
Electricity costs remain the biggest driver of profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural America at stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even in the midst of a market slump.
Can the US government begin accumulating bitcoin?
Another important point of discussion raised by Askew is the possibility of a US strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers suggest that the US government accumulates Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves and recognizes its potential as a globally valuable repository.
Askew explains that if such a backup were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock and significantly increase the price of Bitcoin. However, he warns that governments are likely to be slower and involve progressive accumulation rather than sudden, large-scale purchases.
Even if implemented over several years, such programs could further strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing the available supply from the market.
Bitcoin price forecast and long-term outlook
Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, but he believes that market behavior is moving towards a more gradual and sustained growth rather than an extreme speculative cycle.
Bitcoin price target for 2025:
- Basic Case: $150k – $200k
- Bull Case: $250K+
Long-term (10-year) forecast:
- Basic Case: $500,000 – $1 million
- Bull Case: Bitcoin overturns the 20t market capitalization of gold → Over $1 million per BTC
Askew sees several key factors driving Bitcoin pricing over the next decade, including:
Stable institutional demand from ETFs and the Ministry of Corporate Finance.
Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.
Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.
Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation and the global liquidity cycle.
He emphasizes that as Bitcoin’s market structure matures, it can become more susceptible to sharp price fluctuations and become a more attractive long-term asset for institutions.
Conclusion: More mature Bitcoin market
According to Askew, Bitcoin is undergoing structural changes that will shape price trends over the next few years. With institutional investors reducing market volatility, mining innovations improve efficiency, and potential government adoption, Bitcoin’s market behavior is similar to that of gold or other long-term financial assets.
While dramatic parabolic executions can be frequent, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory looks stronger and sustainable than ever before. Askew’s perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset. It has evolved into a critical financial product with increasing global adoption.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
This post How Bitcoin ETFs and Mining Innovations Reconstruct the BTC Price Cycle first appeared in Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mark Mason.
