Amid the price decline in Bitcoin (BTC), selling by investors with losses has accelerated to levels that historically precede a deepening bear market.
According to data shared by Glassnode on February 24th, Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average realized profit/loss ratio has fallen below 1.
This indicator compares the value of coins sold at a profit with the value of coins sold at a loss. If this falls below 1, “a full transition to an excess loss realization regime is confirmed,” the on-chain analytics firm warned.
Historically, has been below this threshold for more than 6 months Before you get over it. As Glassnode explains, such a recovery generally signals a constructive return of liquidity to the market.
This level of decline preceded a further decline in Bitcoin price, with Bitcoin falling to the bottom of a bear cycle. This indicator will rise above 1 only if the market starts to recover. This can be seen in the following graph.
Based on this logic, if the historical pattern repeats, the indicator will not cross the 1 level again until six months later, in August. Therefore, a few weeks before This virtual currency’s winter lows may be recognized.
Historical patterns and macro context put pressure on the market
This projection This is consistent with the view that Bitcoin is in a crypto winter and will only get worse in the future.following historical patterns regarding half-lives. Digital currencies always reached the end of each bullish cycle in the year following such an event, after which a significant decline began.
The corrections in each BTC bearish cycle were slightly smaller. What happened in 2014 was that prices fell by 86%, in 2018 by 83% and in 2022 by 77%. Therefore, if this pattern continues, Bitcoin could put the brakes on this bearish period by dropping 75% from its historic highs near $31,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at USD 62,000, as shown by the CriptoNoticias calculator. This is almost 50% below the all-time high of USD 126,000 set in October 2025, a year after the halving.
However, past events Although it will not necessarily be repeated in the future, Therefore, indicators and forecasts should be carefully evaluated. This is especially true when macroeconomic conditions are causing widespread pessimism.
In addition to geopolitical tensions, Promote risk aversion in the market The impact on the economy is unclear at this point. That’s largely due to the fact that President Donald Trump imposed new import tariffs even though the Supreme Court had invalidated previously enacted tariffs.
According to analysts such as Uttam Dey, Bitcoin will reach the top of its downtrend once expectations return for more liquidity that could flow into the market. What could trigger this scenario is the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at some point during the year.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin market enthusiasts maintain long-term bullish expectations due to its scarcity. Among them, Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, the public company that holds the most BTC, predicts that this year’s crypto winter will be shorter than other winters due to institutional investment.
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