Bitcoin’s volatility curve showed a sharp swing in April. The volatility realized measures the actual daily fluctuations in Bitcoin prices across the set window, not the market expectations. This shows how turbulent trading turned out as it is the annual standard deviation of daily log returns. This allows analysts to benchmark the price of options for recorded movements, flag regimes shift faster than price trends, helping them determine whether implicit premium or leverage levels are stretched.
The week-long realised volatility printed 94% on April 12, the highest read since January 10, 2023, coinciding with a $3,124 daytime decline and an end of $82,747 and $85,270. Eight days later, after a narrow $1,479 range, the same gauge fell to 16% as prices settled near $85,000. The market has only seen a fast 50-point contraction once a week since October 2022.
As Bitcoin won $2,785 in the day and closed at $93,715, the activity was featured again on April 23, bringing the weekly realised volatility back to 54%. A snapshot of the Greeks.Live order book shows Delibit’s open profits with a $95,000 call strike rising to 13,000 contracts for the day, the $160 million concept, and the largest day build since Spot ETFS launched in January. The put-call ratio for the last month was slid to 0.41, with traders chasing upside down rather than hedging exposure.
The two-week realizations were held at 71% on April 12, 59% on April 20, 54% on April 30, 40% on April 30, 56% on 56% during that time, and 54% for 6 months, reaching 54%. A flat medium-term profile means that your daily swing will settle down quickly, but traders with longer horizons still cite prices midway through 50%.
16% short legs against an implicit leaf dealer for a month of 55% collecting about 0.8 volatility points per day. The risk of this low gamma is limited, allowing market makers to hedge hedge by selling spots to gatherings. Usually pauses unless fresh catalysts force them to rebalance.
Price action for the last week of April shows carry trades. From April 25th to April 30th, Bitcoin’s daytime range averaged around $1,900, with only 16% for a week and settled at 55% for a month. Binance Funding averaged 0.039% on April 12th versus 0.0066% per window for an average of 8 hours. The liquidation fell from $485 million on April 12 to $78 million on April 30.
Six months have found themselves sitting at 54%, the same level as January 1st, indicating that the market is still expected to see a big swing heading towards the Federal Reserve summer meeting and the US election. Therefore, April portrays a market that is willing to drift higher in demand for stable ETFs, but will make activity faster and faster when momentum fades.
Volatility spikes are tied to larger cache prints than in 2024, occurring in short bursts that fade faster. That pattern suit carries strategy, but builds up potential risks. The weekly volatility is nearly 15%.
In the short term of Post Bitcoin, we noticed that volatility fell to 16% after the early April spike first appeared in encryption.
