Bitcoin is in a pivotal moment as it trades below the $120K zone, with price action tightening and Bulls struggling to push key levels. The broader trend remains bullish, but short-term cooldowns can continue before another leg is high.
By Shayan
Daily Charts
On the daily charts, Bitcoin is still held within a wide ascending channel that remains intact for several months. The recent revision from an all-time high of $124,000 has yet to destroy the market structure, with the 100-day moving average below the price, with additional support offering around $110,000.
However, the rally has clearly lost momentum in the past few weeks, with the RSI turning sideways and prices not being able to win new highs. Nevertheless, bulls still have the advantage as long as their assets are above the rising orange trendline.
A clean break above $124K sparks fresh purchases and pushes cryptocurrency into price discovery mode, but if the support zone is given around $110,000, it could drop sharply towards the $100,000-$100,000 region.
4-hour chart
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, BTC will below the short-term ascending trendline and create a rising triangle in a $1.17 million resistance zone. This could be an early warning sign of a potential trend shift or deeper pullback, especially as prices have been rejected multiple times, particularly near the $117K-118K resistance area.
The momentum has also drastically weakened, with the RSI slipping below 50, showing a clear fork between the recent highs. If the market could not quickly retrieve the broken trendline, it could see the further downside towards the $108,000 zone, followed by a potential bounce from the main demand area of nearly $100,000.
On-Chain Analysis
Long-term holder SOPR
On the emotional side, long-term holder SOPR is steadily declining, even as prices are consolidated near local highs. This downtrend in SOPR shows that long-term holders are actually reducing their spending activity. In other words, they choose to reduce sales and hold coins.
This often reflects increased confidence in further potential, as experienced market participants are so keen to profit from current prices. It also suggests that supply-side pressure is relaxed, so when demand returns, a stronger breakout stage can be set. If this retention action continues and coincides with bullish momentum, the next leg can be supported at Bitcoin rally.
