Bitcoin’s path to all-time highs and subsequent price discovery will depend on whether spot ETF flows sustain again after a two-way start to 2026 that tested how “sticky” institutional demand is in the post-ETF era.
crypto slate tracked $1.29 billion in net outflows from the US Spot Bitcoin ETF from December 15, 2025 to December 31, 2025. This stretch indicated that redemptions could remain concentrated even at the end of the year.
The first full-year trading week of January 2026 brought the risk-off impulse once again. The Spot Bitcoin ETF shed a total of $681 million.
Farside Investors’ daily flow chart for that window shows multiple large negative sessions. These include -$486.1 million on January 7, -$398.8 million on January 8, and -$250 million on January 9.
| Date (2026) | Spot BTC ETF Net Flow (USD mm) |
|---|---|
| January 7th | -486.1 |
| January 8th | -398.8 |
| January 9th | -250.0 |
| January 14th | +840.6 |
| January 20th | -479.7 |
| January 21st | -708.7 |
| January 22nd | -32.2 |
| January 23rd | -103.5 |
Whiplash cuts both ways, revealing how quickly the conduit can reopen and how quickly it can close again when risk appetite abates.
The largest single-day inflow in early 2026 was on January 14th. Inflows exceeded approximately $840 million while Bitcoin was trading at more than $97,000.
But the tape in late January changed again. The four sessions from January 20th to January 23rd had a total net outflow of approximately $1.32 billion, led by -$708.7 million on January 21st. This reversal is a more recent test of whether the creation can survive beyond the days of explosive price chasing.
The spot ETF era changes the pace of the market
The approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 was a significant market structure change that made these records significant, reshaping the way supply and demand are expressed through regulatory instruments. Prior to that, crypto ETF flows were essentially meaningless as they were based on “paper Bitcoin” through the futures market.
For traders aiming for the next high, the most obvious question is whether this change will eliminate the halving.
One thing we know for sure is that flows mostly react to macro conditions rather than imposing them, so the pace and visibility of relocation changes.
History still sets the latest reference point for “price discovery”. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, linked to the rise in US stocks and ETF inflows as the US dollar fell.
That October high landed during a period in which cycle highs always occurred after past halvings. crypto slate Last year’s forecast.
Looking ahead, the question is whether a new multi-week ETF auction, with stable policy expectations outside of the normal cycle, will allow the next breakthrough above the October 2025 cap to happen sooner.
Alternatively, the flow may remain tactical enough to delay a new high until the next cycle’s waypoint. This would be until 2029, if historical timing is followed, or, if the 2020-2024 cycle repeats, late 2027, when it hits an all-time high again just before the halving.
See below for how the previous breakout developed. crypto slate An explanation of why BTC hit a new all-time high.
Macro liquidity and interest rate expectations frame setting
Short-term macro-piping provides measurable context. In the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 release for the week ending January 21, 2026, “wholly owned securities” amounted to approximately $6.285 trillion.
The same release puts “Reserve Bank credit” at $6.532 trillion. Some macro traders track this as a broader balance sheet proxy and liquidity indicator.
These levels do not correspond one-to-one to the price of Bitcoin, but in the ETF era they help explain regimes in which ETF creation may continue or reverse, especially around policy meetings that may reprice risk.
| Fed H.4.1 Item | week is over | Value (USD mm) | Approximately (USD T) | sauce |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholly Owned Securities | January 21, 2026 | 6,284,577 | 6.285 | Federal Reserve System (H.4.1) |
| reserve bank credit | January 21, 2026 | 6,532,345 | 6.532 | Federal Reserve System (H.4.1) |
The following volatility waypoints are also dated: The next FOMC meeting begins on January 27, 2026 and ends on January 28, 2026, with statements scheduled for 2:00 PM ET.
As of this writing, the CME FedWatch tool shows no change 97% of the time. From a practical perspective, this is a short-term test of whether the January inflow date marks the beginning of a long-term streak of creation, or whether the late January outflow signals a return to tactical, mean-reverting positioning.
Furthermore, if the financial situation tightens due to the reset of interest rates, the situation could become a one-day chase that could be resolved quickly.
Three paths to the next Bitcoin all-time high
These inputs result in three timing windows that traders can track without treating a single driver as deterministic.
pass 1
“”inLiquidity is stable and ETF bidding continues‘Pass, the next all-time high could come 2026 or 2027 When daily net flows go from bursts to weeks of net flows. The market has already shown that it can absorb about $840 million in net inflows in a single session.
But the trigger is persistence. Repeated positive totals in ETF flows are not likely to quickly revert to multi-day streaks of outflows, combined with a more benign interest rate path around meetings such as the late January FOMC window.
Looking at assets as a whole, the BTC/NASDAQ ratio is currently 3.4, down from around 4.8 in October 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high. BTC/Nasdaq (BTC price divided by Nasdaq 100) serves as a barometer of relative strength indicating whether BTC is leading or lagging the US growth risk.
Therefore, since the October high, Bitcoin’s performance has worsened compared to the Nasdaq. This means that BTC is in a weaker risk regime than at its peak.
pass 2
second pass The cycle concept remains, but is “reparameterized” by TradFi rails. Under that view, The next all-time high will be reached after that.could approach a half-life before 2028.
Evidence of the slow pathway is seen in the behavior of the two-way valve. Large outflows at the end of 2025 and early January 2026 were followed by significant positive days that may reflect tactical re-entry as price movements rather than long-term asset allocation, followed by another round of outflows in late January.
Under this regime, price discovery becomes a conditional event. Rather than a single catalyst date tied to issuance, this requires both a break above the October 2025 high and confirmation that the stock no longer reverts to its mean around the risk-off week.
pass 3
In the third pass, Drawdown as an ongoing constraint even for ETFs. The market’s history includes significant declines from peak to trough, and it is likely to fall again if macro shocks force deleveraging across risk assets.
PortfoliosLab shows that the maximum drawdown from November 2021 to November 2022 is -76.67%. It also shows earlier cycles above -80%, such as -85.3%, -83.8%, and -93.07% in previous periods.
In this scenario, institutional rails can change the speed and liquidity of circulation.
However, the range of historical outcomes is still wide enough that The “next ATH timing” depends on how deep the reset is priced before a new accumulation phase begins.
Sell-side forecasting provides another reference range that can be tracked against these triggers without treating the target as a baseline.
Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026. The bank lowered its call to about half its previous target of $300,000 and set specific metrics that require the market to return to and maintain its October 2025 high.
The development of this path can now be measured on a daily basis through the persistence of ETF flows and weekly through Fed balance sheet reporting and rate path expectations, not just the halving story.
Immediate testing of that framework will take place in the same places the market is already focused. The Fed will issue its policy statement on January 28th at 2pm ET.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
