- With rising interest rates and budget deficits, the U.S. debt could exceed $50 trillion within a few years.
- Sustained growth in PPI indicates that producer costs can prolong inflation.
- Hidden debt could push U.S. real debt to nearly 300% of GDP.
Economist Peter Schiff expressed concern about the US national debt, which currently exceeds $39 trillion. He warned that rising interest rates, increased defense spending and sustained inflation could push the debt further.
Schiff predicts that by the end of President Trump’s term, if current trends continue, the national debt could exceed $50 trillion. The combination of rising borrowing costs and budget deficits threatens long-term fiscal stability.
The U.S. national debt has exceeded $39 trillion, an increase of $2.8 trillion since President Trump took office 14 months ago. However, if war costs soar, interest rates rise, and the recession continues, the budget deficit will skyrocket. The national debt could reach $50 trillion by the time President Trump leaves office.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 18, 2026
Inflationary pressures and producer costs
Recent data shows that the US economy continues to face inflationary pressures. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.7% in February compared to the previous month, exceeding expectations.
On an annual basis, the overall PPI rose by 3.4%, the highest level since February 2025, and the core PPI reached 3.9%. These numbers suggest that producers are facing higher costs, which could be passed on to consumers. Furthermore, defense spending has increased sharply due to the Middle East conflict.
Evercore founder Roger Altman warned that failure to reach a diplomatic solution could trigger a market reset. These factors, combined with higher interest costs, could worsen the federal budget deficit.
The reality of hidden debt and real debt
Fiscal economist Kent Smetters emphasizes that the reported $39 trillion in debt underestimates the true obligations of the U.S. government. He explains that implicit “pay-as-you-go” liabilities, including Social Security and Medicare promises, are not fully counted under federal accounting rules. Smetters estimates that including these obligations would raise the debt-to-GDP ratio to nearly 300%.
Smetters insists the issue is a “shell game” rather than a pyramid scheme. Federal rules allow debts to be taken off the official books and concealed in full. This practice began decades ago and continues today, making public debt numbers appear smaller than economic reality.
Related: US national debt exceeds $38 trillion: What’s next for cryptocurrencies?
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