Polymarket users placed 27 bets on the outcome of the Golden Globes, 26 of which turned out to be correct. As major prediction markets grow in popularity, so do concerns about insider trading.
Polymarket’s partnership with the Golden Globes also raised questions about whether this will become the new normal for future awards shows.
Polymarket has a 96% hit rate on the Golden Globes
On Friday, the Golden Globe Awards announced in a press release that it has partnered with the world’s largest prediction market for the annual awards show.
On the same day, Polymarket produced 28 Golden Globe-specific polls, 27 of which focused solely on the results of the various categories in question.
In just three days, millions of users flocked to the platform to bet on who would be this year’s winner. Votes ranged from Best Movie to Best Podcast, with some transactions exceeding $275,000. In total, the contract stakes amounted to at least $2.5 million.
At Polymarket, public opinion polls related to the Golden Globes increased rapidly before the awards ceremony. Source: Polymarket.
On Sunday, the ceremony unfolded as expected. By the end of the night, it wasn’t just the winners on stage who walked away with trophies.
Polymarket bettors also had reason to celebrate, with the platform calling 26 out of 27 categories correctly, for a hit rate of 96%.
The only good people left to suffer their woes were those who put their money toward Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor instead of Stellan Skarsgård, who won for his performance in Sentimental Value.
The last-minute partnership surprised many involved. Additionally, the results renewed attention to concerns about the potential for insider trading on less regulated platforms.
Doubts about credibility grow over event contracts
With 2026 just two weeks away, a series of events related to prediction market polls are raising some eyebrows.
Controversy erupted from the White House press room on Wednesday after Secretary of State Caroline Leavitt finished her daily briefing in about 64 minutes and 30 seconds, just short of the 65 minutes that prediction market Calci had set as a betting standard.
At the time, the market indicated a 98% chance that a press conference would last longer than 65 minutes. Traders who bet on this outcome could earn up to 50 times their investment within seconds.
Today’s White House press conference had a 98% chance of lasting longer than 65 minutes, but Caroline Leavitt abruptly ended it with seconds to spare.
Traders on the NO side made 50x profits in seconds. pic.twitter.com/Fe0MVMq9Oj
— PredictionMarketTrader (@PredMTrader) January 7, 2026
This incident immediately raised concerns about possible insider trading. However, Mr Kalsi later dismissed these claims as unfounded, given the low trading volume in the poll.
Nevertheless, these concerns have new precedents that are difficult to ignore.
On January 3, hours before the United States announced it had detained and extradited Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, a polymarket trader made more than $400,000 by betting that he would be removed from power by the end of the month.
Polymarkets also attract politically connected capital. According to Axios, the company announced in 2025 that it received an investment from 1789 Capital, a venture firm linked to Donald Trump Jr., who also joined its advisory board.
Taken together, these episodes also highlight the increasing overlap between crypto and prediction markets.
Cryptocurrency flow increases depending on the amount of bets placed
Polymarket is closely tied to on-chain rails. Users can transfer funds through various networks such as Ethereum, Polygon, Base, and Arbitrum, or deposit assets such as USDT and USDC.
As gambling activity grows, the demand for stablecoins in particular will increase accordingly, potentially leading to more stablecoins entering the prize gambling scene.
With the Oscars ceremony just about two months away, the Golden Globes results raise questions about whether similarly accurate prediction markets will become a familiar feature at future awards shows.
The Academy Awards has not yet announced any such partnership. In any case, Polymarket lists polls for category results.
Of the 22 polls currently available, transaction volumes range from $112,000 to $8 million.
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