According to the figures, the prediction market recorded its second highest notional trading volume in two years. According to data compiled by Dune Analytics, approximately seven platforms had $25.7 billion in notional trading volume in March, with most of the activity concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Important points:
- Dune Analytics had trading volume of $25.7 billion in March. As activity becomes more concentrated, polymarket and kalshi become dominant.
- Polymarket recorded 115 million transactions in March, while Karshi had 88 million. This size indicates further market adoption.
- CFTC oversight and US lawmakers are targeting Polymarket, a market with open interest approaching $940 million.
Polymarket and Kalshi drive billions in trading volume
Dune.com data compiled by @datadashboards shows prediction market volume continues to hit new highs. Statistics for January 2026 show that the month marks the highest point in notional volume, reaching a record $26.75 billion, followed by February’s total of $23.24 billion. The statistics for March have been finalized, and the month recorded $25.7 billion, making it the second-highest month on record.
Since the month is incomplete, when combined with April’s $3.9 billion, the cumulative total from January 1, 2024 reaches $162.64 billion. March’s numbers spanned seven different markets, while Karshi and Polimarket led the sector with $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Polymarket trading volume is primarily driven by politics, followed by cryptocurrencies, sports, and global events.
The Dune dashboard shows Kalsi seeing increased activity across the economy, finance, and politics, while also expanding into niche areas such as climate, weather, and transportation. Following the headline numbers announced by Polymarket and Kalshi, Crypto.com, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.fun, and Overtime.io make up the rest of the cohort.
March saw a sharp increase in activity, reaching approximately 207 million transactions across all tracked prediction markets. This represents a significant month-on-month increase compared to February’s 155 million. Once again, Polymarket and Kalshi took the top spot, with Polymarket accounting for 115 million transfers and Kalshi recording 88 million.
As of this writing, the prediction markets have a combined open interest of approximately $939.86 million, with activity largely concentrated on two platforms. Kalshi tops the list with $487.21 million, followed by Polimarket with $422.09 million. This means that this pair accounts for the majority of today’s total positions. Smaller platforms were far behind, with Predict.fun at $19.51 million and Opinion at $10.38 million.
The remaining venues’ contributions were small, with Limitless contributing approximately $666,520 and other venues totaling just $3,760, indicating a pronounced top-heavy market structure. Polymarket and Karshi are attracting this demand despite some ongoing headwinds, including certain market-related disputes related to the US-Iranian conflict. Democratic lawmakers are primarily opposed to prediction markets and are pushing legislation aimed at increasing oversight.
The two major platforms also address state-level regulations that conflict with federal guidance, particularly from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Still, despite criticism and the prospect of regulatory action, open interest and notional value continue to grow in Polymarket and Calci. While it remains unclear how long this momentum will continue, it is clear that prediction markets are here to stay.
