The U.S. bond market is under pressure not seen since the 2025 tariff war, and several analysts believe President Donald Trump’s administration will intervene soon.
This week, or more precisely on March 26, 2026, Adam Kobeissi, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Kobeissi Letter Newsletter,
To understand why this is important, we need to go back to February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran, and one month has now passed.
In the early days, Market attention focused on rising oil pricesas reported by CriptoNoticias. But that is no longer the main concern.
From oil to bonds
According to Kobessi’s letter, The real problem has moved: “The biggest problem today is the bond market, which is rapidly becoming the main obstacle to the global economy.”
Specifically, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a key indicator of the cost of money in the global economy as a whole, has risen from 3.92% to 4.42% since the start of the war. That’s a 50 basis point increase in less than a month.
To put it in perspective, the market expected the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to fall to a range of 2.75% to 3.00% during 2026 by the end of 2025. Currently, interest rate futures cited by Kobeissi indicate that a base case scenario would see rates remain unchanged until September 2027. To make matters worse, “the rate hike debate has resurfaced, with the probability of the Fed raising rates by the end of 2026 at about 43%.”
Interest rate hikes are being discussed again —A few months ago, when the number of cuts was being discussed — This greatly exceeded my expectations.
Inflation and employment: the Fed’s dual problems
of The Fed has two missions. That is to maintain price stability and maximum employment.. The problem is that today both objectives are contradictory.
Kobessi elaborated that according to his data: Twelve-month inflation expectations rose to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023.Rising oil prices due to the conflict with Iran are a contributing factor.
In addition, Financial Bulletin analysts estimate that if oil prices average $95 per barrel over three months, the consumer price index (CPI) could rise by up to 3.2% year-on-year, and even more given the war’s secondary impact on supply chains. Let me be clear that as of March 28, 2026 in this publication, the price of a barrel of Brent is $106.
In addition to all this, there are the following facts: US labor market worsens. Nonfarm payrolls have been revised downward by 1.029 million people by 2025, the largest revision in at least 20 years. The average length of unemployment jumped to 25.7 weeks in February, the highest level in four years. Analysts warned that the U.S. economy cannot withstand 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.50%, much less 5.00% or higher.
“Trump Threshold” and Intervention
There is recent precedent that Kobessi Letter analysts believe is important. In April 2025, during the tariff crisis known as “Emancipation Day.” President Trump suspended tariffs for 90 days just as the 10-year Treasury yield hit the 4.50-4.70% zone.
The day after the announcement, Trump himself declared live that he was “watching the bond market”.. Since then, that range has served as what the report reviewed here calls the “Trump Policy Change Zone,” the level at which the government feels sufficient pressure to change course.
The current bond yield is 4.42%. Distance is minimal. That’s why analysts interpreted President Trump’s March 23 announcement that he was postponing attacks on Iranian power plants and talking about “productive” talks as the first sign of intervention.
What will happen to Bitcoin?
Although the Kobeissi Letter does not mention Bitcoin in its analysis, some speculative conclusions can be drawn. The answer to this intertitle question is not linear. It depends on the type of intervention that occurs.
If the intervention is a peace agreement with Iranbond yields will fall, expected inflation will moderate, and demand for assets considered “risky” will return. In that scenario, Bitcoin will probably go up Along with technology stocks, this is the most bullish case in the short term.
History favors Bitcoin if the intervention is to force the FED to cut rates. Lower interest rates mean a weaker dollar and a greater search for yield on alternative assets. But there is a deeper interpretation. If the Fed cuts rates at 5% inflation, the implicit message is that it is willing to tolerate that inflation. And that is precisely the strongest argument for Bitcoin as a store of value against the deterioration of fiat currencies.
Instead, Scenarios become complex when interventions fail or are delayed. Rising yields mean tight financial conditions, and investors sell risky assets to cover losses on other positions. In that case, the price of Bitcoin will fall even further.
For this reason, the market must always pay attention to new events related to the Iran war. Any statements made by President Trump or anyone else involved in the conflict could cause a change in the course of the economy and impact Bitcoin and other financial assets.
