Macro investor Raul Pal believes the crypto market is in a longer-than-usual bull cycle that could last until 2026 due to expanding global liquidity and rising debt pressure. In his latest interview, real vision. Pal said this cycle “has more runway than people realize,” adding that Ethereum (ETH) is likely to regain momentum over Bitcoin (BTC).
Understand why cryptocurrencies outperform
Macro factors: land subsidence, inflation, liquidity
Central banks and governments are increasing liquidity at about 8% a year to manage debt. Combined with inflation, the hurdle rate for investment is 11%. Assets that do not meet this threshold lose real value. Bonds and cash are not enough, but cryptocurrencies offer a way to preserve purchasing power and expand over the long term.
Liquidity as a dominant factor
Pal said liquidity, rather than earnings or geopolitics, remains the dominant driver of asset prices.
He said liquidity explains about 96% of the volatility in tech stocks and 90% of Bitcoin’s volatility. This framework explains why cryptocurrencies often rise when traditional indicators look weak, making macro conditions more important than short-term noise.
Past Performance and Cryptocurrency Edge
According to Pal, Bitcoin has grown by about 130% annually since 2012, despite significant drawdowns of 64%, 73%, and 56%. Ethereum is growing at a compound annual rate of approximately 133% and has consistently outperformed Bitcoin over past cycles.
Early-stage networks such as Solana and Sui delivered rapid gains during the adoption phase. Pal argues that intensive exposure to cryptocurrencies may be more effective in this environment than broader diversification.
Related: Ethereum Price Prediction: Analysts Track $4,200 Support as Liquidity Cluster Suggests Whale Target
Looking ahead: ETH vs. BTC and beyond
Pal expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in the current cycle given its adoption trajectory. However, Bitcoin remains the core of any crypto portfolio, offering stability and steady compounding returns.
Echoing Pal’s view, another analyst said Ethereum appears poised to steal momentum from Bitcoin. If ETH hits a new short-term high, it could move toward new all-time highs. It seems very likely that $ETH will enter a phase where it will take over the momentum of $BTC,” said Poppe.
Related: Ethereum Foundation converts $4.5 million ETH into stablecoin via CoWSwap
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