The cryptocurrency market has had a year full of ups and downs in 2025, with most large digital assets seeing mixed performance. After a rough start to the year, things started to look up in the second and third quarters, with the price of Bitcoin hitting multiple all-time highs over a six-month period.
However, the flagship cryptocurrency is expected to struggle significantly in the final months of 2025 and end the year in the red. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data and historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin price could be set for a significantly stronger annual close than expected.
There are no negative days left in 2025, but there could be a major correction in 2026.
On Saturday, December 6, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson visited the X platform to share what we can expect from the final Bitcoin price in 2025. According to on-chain experts, the market leader is likely to end the year in a sideways price range.
The relevant metric here is Yearly Accumulated Negative Days. It tracks market resilience by measuring the number of days an asset’s daily price candlestick closes in the red.
Historical data and patterns show that Bitcoin typically sees negative price fluctuations for an average of 170 days a year. This average number or level provides insight into the stress threshold for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Source: @joao_wedson on X
As the number of negative days approaches or exceeds this threshold of 170 days, as Bitcoin already did in 2025, selling pressure in the market tends to weaken as fatigue builds among bears. Wedson revealed that the leading cryptocurrency has already accumulated 171 negative days so far in 2025.
The on-chain expert noted that exceeding this threshold “strongly suggests” that the Bitcoin price may not suffer any more negative days in the final weeks of 2025. Wedson said a deeper correction looming for market leaders would most likely occur next year.
However, as the Alphractal founder emphasized, Bitcoin price is more likely to end the year within a consolidation range. Adding further credence to this assumption is the lack of market demand, as seen in the decline in capital inflows into physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $89,397, down just 0.3% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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