Ethereum has failed to regain the $3,200 level and is struggling to regain momentum, leaving the market in a fragile equilibrium. Despite several attempts at recovery, the price trend shows that the bulls are currently more focused on defending the current demand zone than pushing higher highs. This hesitation reflects broader uncertainty across crypto markets, with traders remaining cautious amid tight liquidity and heightened macro risks.
But beneath the surface, on-chain activity is starting to tell a more nuanced story. According to Lookonchain, data from Arcam reveals that major market participants are actively re-entering. The so-called 66kETH Borrow Whale, which had previously accumulated 489,696 ETH worth about $1.5 billion, started buying Ethereum again due to the price drop.
This behavior stands out because it occurred during times of weakness rather than strength, and this pattern is typically associated with strategic accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
Whale activity during a drawdown often signals confidence in long-term price appreciation, even if sentiment remains fragile. Ethereum still faces technical resistance overhead, but the return of large buyers suggests that demand is weak but not disappearing.
Whale accumulation raises questions amid Ethereum vulnerabilities
Lookonchain data provides further insight into the recent behavior of the 66kETHBorrow whale, highlighting a sequence that has received significant attention from the market. Over the past eight hours, Whale borrowed approximately $85 million in USDT from Aave and transferred the funds to Binance.
Shortly after, he withdrew 38,576 ETH (worth approximately $119.3 million) from the exchange. This rapid movement of money during a market decline has raised questions among small investors, many of whom wonder if this whale is acting on information or beliefs that are not yet reflected in prices.
Such actions are often interpreted as intentional accumulation, especially when ETH is withdrawn from the exchange rather than left on the trading platform. Exchange outflows generally reduce immediate liquidity on the seller side and strengthen perceptions of long-term positioning. However, it is important to recognize the limitations of on-chain visibility. These transactions only represent wallets that are publicly identified and tracked.
There is no certainty that this whale’s exposure is completely transparent. He may be holding hedges, short positions, or additional long exposures through other wallets, centralized exchanges, or derivatives markets that are not visible on-chain. As a result, this activity suggests confidence but should not be interpreted as confirmation of final direction.
ETH price struggles below major moving averages
Ethereum is currently trading around the $3,150-$3,200 zone after a modest rebound, but the broader technical structure remains weak. On the daily chart, ETH is trading below the 50-day moving average and the 100-day moving average, both of which are currently acting as dynamic resistance. The recent rally has stalled near the declining 50-day moving average, highlighting the lack of strong follow-through from buyers.
The 200-day moving average sits near $3,500, which is still well above current price levels. This confirms that Ethereum is still in a correction phase within its macro uptrend. As long as price remains below this long-term trend indicator, upsides can face selling pressure from both swing traders and systematic strategies.
Price behavior over the past few weeks has shown a series of high declines after being rejected near $4,000 in October, confirming a short-term bear market structure. However, ETH has defended the $2,800 to $2,900 support area so far, suggesting that buyers remain active at lower levels.
For Ethereum to decisively change momentum, the bulls need to regain the $3,300-$3,400 range and sustain it. Failure to do so will leave downside risks and could result in a retest of previous demand zones if broader market sentiment deteriorates.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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