Ethereum price is trading around $2,914 today, remaining just above short-term support after another failed attempt to break the downtrend that has capped any gains since early September. Rejections will continue to put pressure on buyers as spot flows remain negative and the EMA cluster continues to act as a ceiling.
ETF purchases provide support but fail to change momentum
$ETH ETF inflows yesterday were $78,600,000🟢.
BlackRock purchased $46.1 million in Ethereum. pic.twitter.com/Ww7wsXt7Y3
— Ted (@TedPillows) November 26, 2025
The latest ETF data yesterday showed rare positive inflows. The fund added $78.6 million in net Ethereum exposure, led by a $46.1 million purchase from BlackRock. This inflow provides some relief after two weeks of losses for most issuers. It also shows that institutional desks are selectively adding exposure at lower prices.
ETH Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
However, spot flow is a different story. Coinglass recorded $129.2 million in outflows on November 26th. This continues the multi-session pattern of negative net inflows that lasted through much of November. When ETF inflows collide with continued spot selling, prices often stall without forming a trend. This tension explains why Ethereum is unable to break out of the downtrend line despite improving institutional bids.
The downtrend is maintained as the EMA is aligned in a bearish direction.
ETH price fluctuation (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart shows Ethereum trading firmly below its 20-day EMA of $3,115, 50-day EMA of $3,481, 100-day EMA of $3,649, and 200-day EMA of $3,512. This adjustment keeps the trend lower and more biased. All of the rebounds over the past three weeks have weakened as the price touched the lower side of the 20-day EMA.
A downtrend line from the September high strengthens this barrier. The latest test near $3,000 failed spectacularly, pushing ETH back into the midrange. Sellers will continue to defend this line and the market will remain in a correction structure until ETH records a daily close above that line.
The daily supertrend is at $3,434, well above the current price. This indicator has remained firmly in the red since its breakdown earlier this month. A close above this band is required to confirm a change in directional control.
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The long-term uptrend line from April is near $2,750. This area serves as a multi-month benchmark and represents the next major demand zone if downward pressure continues. If ETH fails to hold the $2,900 area, the possibility of a retest of this level remains.
The diurnal structure is compressed into a symmetrical triangle
ETH price fluctuation (Source: TradingView)
The 30-minute chart shows that ETH is trading within a tightening triangle with intraday traders forming a low above $2,860, while the upper limit is below $2,965. This compression reflects indecision after the recent trendline rejection.
The parabolic SAR dot is still above price, indicating that sellers are still in control of short-term momentum. The RSI is hovering around 42, indicating a mild bearish bias rather than oversold. This combination suggests that ETH is waiting for a chance to break out of the intraday range.
A breakout of $2,965 would give buyers another chance to put pressure on the $3,000 zone. A break below $2,860 exposes $2,820 and increases the likelihood of a further pullback towards the long-term trendline.
For now, intraday fluctuations remain reactive rather than directional. Traders are using the triangle border for short-term setups while waiting for broader flows to settle.
outlook. Will Ethereum go up?
Ethereum faces a clear technological path.
- Bullish case: A close above $3,115 would signal the first step toward recovery. Strength above the downtrend line near $3,000 confirms the breakout and a retracement of the 50-day EMA near $3,481 sets the stage for a move towards $3,650.
- Bearish case: Failure to sustain $2,900 opens the door to $2,820 and $2,750, the long-term trendlines that have supported the market since April. A break below $2,750 will trigger a deeper correction towards $2,600.
Ethereum’s next big move will depend on whether buyers can break out of the trendline and reverse the key EMA. Strength above $3,115 changes the narrative. If you lose $2,750, full control passes to the seller.
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