StanchArt predicts that new cycles of Bitcoin could be opposed to past patterns using ETFs and policy tails

Bitcoin (BTC) was able to see its strongest six-month performance in history in the second half of 2025, driven by a record inflow of ETFs, policy risks to the Federal Reserve, and increased adoption of sovereignty.

In a July 2nd research note, Kendrick predicted that ETF inflows and corporate finance ministry purchases would exceed the second quarter level of 245,000 BTC in both the third and fourth quarters.

Lenders maintained their previous forecast that Bitcoin had reached $200,000 by the end of the year, and updated Bitcoin’s third quarter outlook with a price forecast of $135,000.

He added that Bitcoin ETF flows are already raising expectations and the market is beginning to realize that post-harving price patterns for crypto remain intact despite previous questions.

Policy Tail, Sovereignty Purchase

Kendrick also highlighted that in addition to the surge in purchases, the market faces an increased risk to the independence of the Federal Reserve.

According to Kendrick:

“The ETF inflow and the Treasury flow of businesses are all US policy-related.”

Further boosting the outlook for Bitcoin is the passing of the US Genius Act, which recently secured Senate approval. Standard Chartered noted that such laws would increase the clarity of regulations, promote wider adoption, and further integrate Crypto into the traditional financial system.

Kendrick also predicted an increase in the adoption of Bitcoin sovereignty, saying that evidence of national-level purchases would support long-term demand and price stability, similar to the impact seen from the accumulation of the Corporate Treasury in recent months.

Half cycle theory is over

The memo also addresses market concerns about the half cycle of Bitcoin, an event scheduled every four years, cutting mining compensation in half and historically affecting price patterns.

Kendrick explained that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin prices fell about 18 months after Harving.

However, Standard Chartered believes the dynamics have changed. Kendrick writes that a factor that is not present in previous cycles, thanks to a strong influx of ETFs and the purchase of the Ministry of Corporate Treasury, could avoid Bitcoin’s typical post-harving decline.

He said that prices are likely to be volatile from late September to early October as the market focuses on this historic pattern, but predicted that the upward trend will resume at the end of the year, driven by these new structural demand factors.

Kendrick concluded that the coming months will demonstrate how Bitcoin has worked beyond the previous half-cycle behavior.

“Buckle up.”

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