According to the latest BTC price analysis, the Bitcoin Bulls are fighting to get three moving averages back to support at the beginning of the week. This can occur amid a US closure that could halt the release of key economic data and delay the regulatory process, and delay the approval of cryptographic ETFs.
After a week filled with FUDs where prices across the crypto market were withdrawn from local highs, Bitcoin and altcoin appear to be back. Whether this is simply the start of a relief rally, an exit rally, or the next leg, the final quarter of 2025 will be difficult in the market.
Bitcoin’s potentially volatile monthly end
Volatility catalysts are still important as always, as there are bitcoins and dollars in flux. Discussing the current market structure, one X-trader refers to a simple cluster of moving averages integrated into a small area.
The 21, 50 and 100-day SMAs are all in the same place, and that’s the current Spot Price behavior. “They are really very intimately injured right now,” he said during an update to the video uploaded to X.
Bitcoin price movement is minimal today, with small profits and small losses. Our macroeconomic data rafts are paid throughout the week, almost all of which are related to employment.
Bitcoin price transfer. Source: TradingView
The performance could also work well, as Bitcoin prices reflect the performance of gold, which has surged the most this year amid strong demand from institutions.
Beyond US government closures and NFP data
The next key catalyst for Bitcoin prices could be a US government shutdown, scheduled to begin on October 1st. Hedged assets such as Bitcoin, Gold and Silver continue to gather today.
The US now has the advantage of government shutdowns as Republicans and Democrats clash between healthcare and federal spending. Multi-tiered data shows a surge in shutdown odds to 85%.
Republicans advocate for clean spending bills, while Democrats want to use leverage to implement specific health and Medicaid-related policies. Shutdowns will cause data blackouts and will stop the release of major economic reports, including employment and CPI.
This could further hinder the Federal Reserve from making new inputs for policy decisions. Regulators such as the SEC and CFTC operate with reduced staff that could delay IPOs, approvals and reviews of Crypto ETF applications.
Crypto market analysts warn of short-term DIP in both US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, high beta assets such as BTC, ETH, and Altcoins can experience potentially sophisticated volatility.
Last week alone, Crypto Market liquidation spiked to over $1 billion on two separate occasions. Historical data show that US closures caused short-term pain before triggering an upward rally.
Bitcoin prices experienced a decline during the US government closures from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019. However, shortly after the shutdown ended, Crypto began a prominent price recovery.
During a press conference on Monday, US Vice President JD Vance said, “I think we’re heading for a shutdown.” Shortly afterwards, the possibility of the US closing of decentralized platforms was that polymate surged to 85%, up 60% from the previous level.
According to market analysts, there are two possible outcomes. First, the market may respond with a sharp decline and potentially provide opportunities for dipping. Meanwhile, the market remains largely motionless, focusing instead on corporate revenues that are expected to begin in mid-October.
