Ether (ETH) prices stabilized at nearly $2,300, reaching a low of $2,255 after a sharp drop of 20% over three days. This decline has stirred up market sentiment as ethers have not been trading at these levels since October 2024. However, the ETH derivatives market has shown early signs of recovery and strength, suggesting a potential rebound of $2,800.
Ether 30-day futures premium, annual rate. Source: laevitas.ch
30-day ETH futures are currently trading at a 7% premium in the spot market, up slightly from 6% two days ago. Insurance premiums between 5% and 10% are considered neutral, as traders usually expect higher returns for longer settlement periods. This change shows bear pressure of weakness below $2,600, which could boost confidence among bullish investors.
Weak macroeconomic conditions prevent ETH prices from recovering
The journey to ETH again to reach $2,800 may take weeks or months, but data suggests that the lowest prices are likely in the past. Still, the speed of recovery depends on investor attention, and recent US unemployment and inflation numbers have sparked concerns.
The US unemployment claims for the week ending February 22nd reached the highest seasonally adjusted 242,000 in three months. The US, pending home sales in January, also fell to a record decline, down 4.6% from the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. As reported by Yahoo Finance, economists surveyed by Reuters predicted a 1.3% decline.
Investors are increasingly worried about new import tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, which targets goods from China, Canada and Mexico. According to CNBC, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on imports from the European Union, urging the EU to commit a robust and prompt response to unfair trade restrictions.
Nvidia’s stock fell 3.3% on February 27th despite providing strong guidance in the first quarter 2025 and reflecting investor tensions. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 2.2% over two days, sliding to a two-week low of $2,870, highlighting wider market concerns that even safe assets can affect.
Ether Options Market Shows Resilience Despite Price Crash
Ether 60-day option 25% Delta Skew (Put-Call). Source: laevitas.ch
Currently, the skew for ETH options is -2%, sitting comfortably within the neutral range of -6% to 6%. This suggests the resilience of whales and market makers, particularly notable since ETH prices fell 20%. Despite the decline, there is no major rush to buy the put options. It shows confidence in the market.
Current market conditions are similar on February 3, with ETH prices plummeting 38% in under three days, dropping from $3,437 to $2,124. At the time, the Eth Delta Skew metric remained near zero, reflecting solid market confidence. The ether quickly recovered to $2,750 within a day and retained a support level of $2,550 over the next two weeks.
Related: Nvidia’s revenues rise 80% from “surprising” demand for AI chips
The ether’s path to $2,800 remains achievable as its major competitor, Solana, faces a decline in momentum in the Memecoin sector. Meanwhile, Ethereum maintains control of the Total Value Lock (TVL), driven by strong demand for liquid staking, lending, surrender aggregators and automated on-chain liquidity protocols.
The pace of ETH’s price recovery is heavily dependent on Ethereum providing planned upgrades and promoting incentives for projects to develop their own Layer 2 solutions. This will enhance the basic tier utility, enhance staking rewards, and create a clear path to recovery in ETH prices.
