BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has emerged as a leading candidate to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, backed by US President Donald Trump.
Users trading on major forecasting platforms are beginning to rate BlackRock CEO Reeder as the most likely to become Fed Chairman.
As of Monday morning, Rick Reeder’s odds of winning the polymarket had risen to 47 percent, according to the latest prediction market data. Former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh came in second with 28%. Mr. Reeder’s odds in the polymarket were below 3% as of January 12th.
The market volatility in recent weeks also reflects President Trump’s fluctuating statements regarding his nomination to chair the Federal Reserve. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett was approved 85% of the time in December, but recent data shows that number has dropped to 9%. Against this forecast, Polymarket’s trading volume was approximately $269 million, compared to $59 million for Karshi.
Mr. Rieder’s fame stems from his unusual position as chief investment officer of global fixed income investments at BlackRock. As a candidate for Federal Reserve chairman, his published research notes and clear opinions on economic indicators are attracting attention in the market.
In his assessment of the jobs report released on January 9, Mr Rieder argued that the economy had begun to see a strong rise in productivity, which was suppressing demand for labor. Although the headline employment numbers look strong, the real labor market doesn’t fully reflect the situation, Rieder said. “If the question today is whether the economy is growing in productivity, we can point to a number of indicators that require more scrutiny than just looking at the recent slowdown in overall employment growth,” Rieder said in the memo.
Mr. Rieder also noted that while U.S. economic growth remains strong, the broader workforce is not fully participating in this dynamism.
*This is not investment advice.
