Bernstein believes that the strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, could collect more than 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) in the bull market cycle by 2033, Benzinga reported on March 26, citing a research note.
The forecast issued by Bernstein analysts outlines two significantly different paths for the company, depending on the macroeconomic conditions and the long-term price trajectory of Bitcoin.
Bull vs Bear Scenario
In an optimistic scenario, the strategy will expand its holdings from the current 506,137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC (approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current distribution supply), rising to $200,000 by the second half of 2025 and $500,000 by 2029, reaching $1 million by 2033.
To fund that level of accumulation, the strategy likely relies on continued access to capital markets, increasing its total debt to $1 billion and raising $84 billion in stock.
Analysts highlighted that this trajectory depends on low interest rates and strong investor demand.
In contrast, the bear case suggests a more constrained future. As Bitcoin enters a long-term slump since reaching its local peak in 2025, the strategy’s BTC holdings could be leveled near 514,800 BTC.
This forces the company to halt further acquisitions and settle a portion of the Treasury to manage its debt and dividends. Under this base case model, debt rises to $51 billion.
Maintained outperform ratings
Despite the risks, Bernstein reaffirmed its “outperform” rating on its strategy and set a price target of $600.
The company’s valuation model applies a double EV/selling multiple in the software segment and a 55% premium in the Bitcoin reserve. This is a figure that follows the average market premium since pivoting to BTC.
Latest Purchase of Strategy – 6,911 BTC $584.1 million between March 17th and March 23rd further entrenched the commitment to Bitcoin, lifting its total holdings above the 500,000 BTC mark.
The company currently owns more BTC than any other stock-traded entity, attracting interest from retail and institutional investors.
Bernstein’s analytical signals continued institutional interest in the leveraged exposure of the strategy to Bitcoin. The company’s approach remains a clear example of how a company’s balance sheet is being restructured, with a focus on Bitcoin.
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