In a world where emotions move through the market, pessimism has once again seized Bitcoin (BTC).
But in the midst of this deafening noise, the opposite current begins to take shape: extreme fear, far from death sentence, It could refer to a critical moment for investors with a long-term vision.
Is this a prelude to a new golden stage, or is it just another chapter of uncertainty? Data and market voices provide clues worth exploring.
Fear and greedy index, a tool to measure the emotional pulsation of investors, has now fallen into “extreme fear” regions. This phenomenon is not new. Historically, when fear takes over the market, Bitcoin prices tend to play in the background, or at least stabilize before rebound.
Tommaso Scarpellini, a data analyst and head of the Financial Serenity column, observes this pattern with interest. «I’m not surprised to see a new apocalyptic opinion arise. This tends to occur when the index reflects these weak emotions,” he says.
For him, Statistics have proven to be a more reliable guide than traditional high-funded voices.
The fear of a market compass
Scarpellini’s analysis is not based on ambiguous intuition. The fear and greedy index combines factors such as price volatility on derivatives, market impulses, and the relationship between sales options (PUT) and purchase (call).
When the score drops, fear rules. Investors refrain from selling or entering the market to protect themselves from losses. However, the Fear and greedy index using the BTC price graph “will reveal that this has been a major opposition to long-term BTC investors in the past.” In other words, he says, extreme fear zones have historically represented solid entry points.
“It’s not about predicting accurate funds, it’s about recognizing decent opportunities,” the analyst says.
This opposite approach – following when others sell is not new in the world of investment. What’s impressive is how current pessimism contrasts with the evolution of Bitcoin over the past decade.
In 2017, when digital currencies reached $20,000, numbers like Raydario, Jamie Dimon, and Larry Fink sparked her bubble, fraud and foundation-free speculation. The continued bear market seemed to have proved them correctly. However, the story changed within six years. Bitcoin has been quoted for its value five times, and some of his most intense critics have changed aspects.
For example, Dario softens his position and sees Bitcoin as a viable alternative to debt assets. Fink, CEO of BlackRock, went further. He described cryptocurrency as “digital gold,” and admitted that his initial skepticism was wrong, as reported in Cryptootics.
Today, BlackRock manages the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, launched in January 2024. These changes in opinion highlight a troublesome truth. Emotional predictions can fail loudly, but market patterns provide a more consistent narrative.
A technical view of the cycle
Beyond emotions, technical indicators also provide clarity. Scarpellini highlights the 14th term’s relative strength index (RSI) A useful tool to understand Bitcoin price dynamics.
This indicator, which measures the speed and change of price movement, ranges from 0 to 100. RSIs above 70 suggest that assets are overcaped. Less than 30, underrated.
recently, Bitcoin played 50 points on RSI before bounced from $80,000an important psychological level. Now it cites around $86,000, but $90,000 has emerged as a barrier that could open the path to a new historic biggest if it were to face it.
When reviewing history, analysts discovered that of the seven similar compositions in RSI, only two marked the beginning of a long-term bear market. The other five were temporary setbacks amid a broader bullish trend..
“Each modification feels like the end of the world, but true bear markets are more difficult to detect in Bitcoin graph than in the integrated zone,” says Scarpellini. This data invites us to reflect on our actions. Are we facing easy adjustments or before the prelude to the bigger one?
Microscope Basics
When emotions and technicians provide guides, the foundation proposes major challenges. Bitcoin does not generate dividends, does not have industrial utility, and its value depends entirely on market trust.
How can you assess whether it is overrated or underrated? Here, the MVRV indicator works. This compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization and its value, the price at which the coin last changed hands. High MVRVs show euphoria. Low MVRV, underrated.
at the moment, The standardized version of this indicator is MVRV Z-SCORE 2. Historically, the “purchase zone” is less than 1 and the “sales area” is over 7 points.
With a value of 2, Bitcoin is neither a panic territory nor an obvious bubble. “We don’t know what the fair value of Bitcoin is, but the market believes that,” Scarperini says. This observation reinforces the idea that dynamic offer demand is the main engine of currency, beyond opinion..
The risk is always the stem
Despite statistical evidence, uncertainty is not exempt. The discharge of responsibility repeats itself even when fatigue is felt. The past does not guarantee future results.
A 90% chance leaves a 10% margin for the unexpected, and in the financial world, that percentage can lead to significant losses. “This risk is specific to data-based data,” acknowledges Financial Serenity Analysts. With legendary volatility, Bitcoin amplifies that reality.
So the first question – » At what stage of the cycle what are we? » – There is no definitive answer. Scarpellini prefers to deal with it from a multidimensional perspective. Emotions show fear, engineers suggest manageable setbacks, and foundations show no imminent collapse.
“There’s no reason to become Bitcoin,” he says. But don’t fall into blind optimism. “I analyze Bitcoin like any other asset, following that story through data, not through emotions.”
An uncertain but resistant future
The pessimism surrounding Bitcoin in March 2025 is not an isolated phenomenon. It is part of a cycle that has been repeated since the first day of digital currency.
Voices predicting disappearance contrast with numbers that suggest resilience. Extreme fear has served as a key signal in the past rather than belief, but numbers opinions such as Dalio and Fink reflect the difficulty of predicting the fate of this asset.
Certainty appears between noise and data. Bitcoin continues to challenge its detractors. If the future confirms this trend or brings surprises, then only time and the market will say it. For now, currency remains at the heart of the debate as if it is still alive.
(tagstotranslate)bitcoin(btc)
