The recent escalation of commercial tensions unleashed by the White House has shaking global markets, but there is an unexpected story in the new turbulence. Bitcoin (BTC) could be strengthened.
This is proposed by American investment company Grayscale in the latest report. company See the catalysts for digital currency in the current “Tax War”.
From the announcement of new global rates on April 2, 2025 The impact on financial assets is immediateAlthough Bitcoin’s actions suggest a unique role in this scenario.
For example, the S&P 500 lost 12% between April 2nd and 8th. Bitcoin, meanwhile, recorded a much deeper declinea moderate descent considering that volatility triples that of the regular stock market index.
According to Grayscale, if BTC had followed the same correlation as stocks, it would have fallen by 36%. This fact is pointed out by the company: Emphasises how cryptoactive acts as a component of portfolio diversificationeven in times of crisis.
The following graph shows the performance of different types of assets over that period and is adjusted for their volatility.
Trump then told a three-month break at “mutual” tariffs in several countries, Except for China where tensions do not cause a ceasefire. Tariffs on the Second World Economy rose from 104% to 125%. This is a decision the president justified Beijing’s “disorientation” towards Washington.
Grayscale emphasizes that short courses rely on trade negotiations. That success or failure could further alleviate or entertain uncertainty.
The shadow of bitcoin and dollars
Beyond the short term, Grayscale points to the horizon where tariffs could structurally weaken the US dollar.
As the US has declined in commercial flows, demand for currency trading will decline. This can be exacerbated when other countries reduce their confidence in the dollar as a value reserve.
In this regard, The company compares the current situation of Bitcoin in the 1970s with gold.when economic tensions and inflation pushed their adoption.
The US already has a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with some sovereign funds beginning to invest in digital currencies.
on the other hand, Tariffs raise the prices of imported goods and supply inflationeconomic growth faces winds against actual income and business adjustment costs.
Grayscale describes this phenomenon as “Stagflation.” This is a low growth and high inflation environment, and has supported historically rare raw materials. For example, in the 1970s, gold grew at an annual rate of 30%, with average inflation exceeding 7.4%, while stocks and bonds were lagging behind.
Bitcoin doesn’t have such an extensive history, but the company suggests it can follow a similar path.
For now, the stag scenario is not possible, at least in the short term. This is because the underlying consumer price index (CPI) was 2.8% per year in March, with the forecast being less than 3%. This data suggests that, as reported by Cryptootics, inflationary pressures are included, at least for now.
An uncertain future with opportunities
The Trump administration pursues policies that combine tariffs with measures such as tax cuts and deregulation, creating ambiguous panoramas.
Grayscale will be available for the next three years. The dollar faces sustained weaknesses, and inflation exceeds established targets. However, digital currency does not only benefit from this macroeconomic context.
Changes in US regulations, such as integration of digital assets into the banking system and support for custodians, have strengthened its market structure. Despite short-term stumbling, these dynamics could expand the investor base
The traditional market deals with high volatility, but Grayscale observes it. Bitcoin shows relative stability. “The volatility at that price is much less than that of stocks,” the report said, adding that cryptocurrency speculative operators remain in a low position.
If the risks of the macroeconomics are dissipated, the company is waiting for a rebound in Bitcoin valuation. In the long term, the impact will depend on how tariffs reconstruct the global economy and capital flows.
Echoes of a resonating crisis
The April 2nd announcement, baptized by Trump as “the Day of Liberation,” evokes the 1971 “Nixon Shock.”
That episode led to a 27% devaluation of the dollar over seven years. This is a precedent that Grayscale believes to be repeated today. Negotiation or not, current commercial disputes could consolidate Bitcoin as a shelter against weakened dollars And the economy of change.
(tagstotranslate)bitcoin(btc)
