as bitcoin BTC$94,178.02 By late November, it had fallen to nearly $80,000, reducing the ratio of gains to losses for short-term holders to levels that have historically coincided with bear market bottoms in major markets and regions.
On November 24th, this ratio had fallen to 0.013. According to Glassnode data, each previous instance of reaching this level, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, marked either a local trough or a definitive bear market low.
Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November bottom, the 7-day moving average of profit supply for short-term holders fell to around 30,000 BTC. In contrast, the loss supply for short-term holders surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed around $15,000.
Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has risen to around $94,000, an increase of over 7%. During this period, the loss supply of short-term holders decreased to 1.9 million BTC, while the profit supply of short-term holders quickly recovered to 850,000 BTC (ratio approximately 0.45).
Historically, once this ratio approaches 1, it tends to continue to grow beyond it. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin tends to enter a sustained upward phase. This ratio currently remains below 0.5%, suggesting that the indicator still has room for significant further expansion before equilibrium is reached.
Regarding the top, it tends not to occur until the ratio approaches 100.
