The Bitcoin Market (BTC) and cryptocurrency are suffering from the consequences of the “customs war” unleashed by US President Donald Trump.
As Cryptootics reported, the president will not retreat with his tariff measures. It creates scenarios of economic uncertainty and political tension.
As explained in a speech he provided on April 2nd in “Liberation Day,” the purpose of the measure is to promote the national long-term industry and achieve an international agreement that is more favorable for the United States.
As if as of today, April 9th, there was no additional charge for Chinese imports, unless the Asian giants remove the new 34% tariffs imposed in response to Trump’s measures.
The truth is that this context is at a disadvantage for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. This is because it is considered a risky asset by most investors. Therefore, in an age of economic uncertainty, they usually transfer their holdings to unstable financial instruments such as treasure debt.
As a result of these economic turbulences, The BTC price is $76,100, 30% below its history maximum (ATH). $109,110 reached on January 20th.
Perhaps many investors are looking at this graph with some frustration, as they are obsessed with the euphoria of Trump’s arrival at the White House. This is explained by promises made in the campaign, such as the creation of strategic BTC reserves and a favorable regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
It is true that Trump has taken concrete steps to fulfill these promises, but the “Tax War” has taken steps in favor of digital assets, and the outcome is visible.
Anyway, that’s understandable. In reality, exams are usually easily engraved in moments of collective happiness. So, rather than guessing the future, the key is to know how to interpret the present.
In that sense, Trend indicators have proven to be an effective tool: Throughout this cycle they issued purchase and sales signals with incredible accuracy.
It is necessary to clarify that trend monitoring strategies in trading are based on identifying where the market moves and operates in the same direction. It simply consists in recognizing whether the market impulses are positive or negative and using them.
If the trend goes up, you will be required to purchase. If you are a bassist, you choose to sell or be out to avoid losses. Next, look at what the most successful indicator is.
Common ways to apply this strategy I use index mobile (EMA) for an average of 200 days.
This technical analysis tool is usually widely used by people just starting a trade because it can clearly refer to general market trends and detect possible entries or output points.
When the price of BTC falls below this average (blue line), it is usually interpreted as a loss of trending impulse. Many traders see this as a signal to reduce some or all of their holdings.
Finding the best point for a larger profit is a bit accurate indicator, but the truth is that it is extremely useful in minimizing losses.
One of the most classic strategies to follow trends is Crossing between 10 days of EMA and 20 days.
If the 10-day EMA exceeds 20 days, it is interpreted as a purchase signal as it suggests the onset of an upward trend.
On the contrary, if the 10-day EMA exceeds the 20-day EMA, it is considered a sales signal and predicts a price drop.
As can be seen in the following graph, when this note was published, the 10-day EMA (green line) was below the 20-day EMA (red line).
According to the indicator, the sales signal was given around $101,000.
For other indicators… bullish cycles aren’t over yet
“Is that all? And which traders are not following these indicators and resisting the storm through the “war on tariffs”? Are we accused of suffering losses? ”
Those asking these questions have clear recommendations. Please calm down!
And we express it that way Predictors that still show positive signals for Bitcoin.
One of them is Pi Cycle Top. This is available in the training view and is used to identify the highest point achieved by financial assets, with an error of up to 3 days.
It works from the intersection of two mobile socks for 111 days (111DMA) and 2 times 350 days (2 x 350DMA). Throughout history, 111DMA exceeded a multiple of 350DMA, it coincided with Bitcoin’s price roof.
These multiple act as a kind of dynamic, high “roof” and can capture long-term trends. It should be noted that multiples apply to the 350-day mobile average price value, not the days themselves.
On the other hand, a price below 111DMA is usually interpreted as a signal of sales pressure on the asset.
As the graph shows, the “Pi Cycle Top” label shows moments with 111DMA exceeding 350DMA x 2, historically consistent with the associated peak in BTC prices.
nevertheless This tool helped to predict the end of the alcist marketit can also fail if an unexpected event occurs that changes the trend.
Finally, relative non-realization (RUP) appears, showing the metric metric On-chain This allows for measurement How many investors who haven’t sold BTC yet won on average?. That is, it compares the total profit of market capitalization with the potential profit that is not specified.
These holdings are not yet sold, but these unrealized revenues arise when the current price of Bitcoin exceeds the price purchased.
RUP places these profits in context by linking them to market size. If the indicator is high value, as happened at the peak of November 2021, it means that many investors are profiting. This usually increases sales pressure. Instead, a lower value indicates that there is less incentive to sell and the market may accumulate.
As seen in the ChainExposed graphics, the RUP (blue line) is currently less than 1. It is far from the euphoric (red) zone, which historically predicted the historically predicted market ceiling.
This level suggests that many investors have not yet accumulated significant profits. There is still a continuing margin in the upward cycle.
(tagstotranslate)bitcoin(btc)
