It was the first direct formal meeting between the United States and Iran since the armed conflict began. Scheduled for this Saturday, April 11, 2026 in Islamabad, Pakistan.
US Vice President James David Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf will lead their respective delegations. the result of that meeting (or what is expected before realization) There is a direct possibility of moving the price of Bitcoin (BTC) In the next few hours.
As of this writing, Friday morning, April 10, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $71,600, and as operators know all too well, no one wants to take aggressive positions in the face of geopolitical variables of this magnitude.
The following graph shows the performance of digital currencies over the past 7 days.
The two-week ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump last Tuesday is now under visible pressure.. As CriptoNoticias reported yesterday, the State of Israel has resumed bombing of Beirut and southern Lebanon, killing Naim Qasem, the nephew of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, according to the Israeli military. Hezbollah counterattacked with missiles toward the city of Haifa, but Israel intercepted them.
The United States and Israel insist that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan, as mediators, argue to the contrary that Lebanon is an explicit party to the agreement.
While this is happening, The Strait of Hormuz has not yet been completely opened.. The canal, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, now carries at least 10 percent of its historic daily traffic.
In this context, Crude oil is approaching $100 per barrel againWhile this price is far from the $115 it reached last month, it is still relatively high by historical standards.
Why Bitcoin is paying attention to Islamabad
The relationship between Middle East geopolitics and Bitcoin price is as follows. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused energy prices to soar around the world. Expensive energy fuels inflation. Inflation puts pressure on the US Federal Reserve (FED) and central banks around the world to keep interest rates high. High interest rates reduce appetite for assets that are considered risky. Institutional investors still include Bitcoin in this category.
If there is any concrete progress in Saturday’s talks -For example, Iran’s promise to reopen the Straits and a clear definition of Lebanon- Market may react to upward rebound in Bitcoin price. If they fail or are canceled, bearish pressure on Bitcoin could increase.
The person just before is eloquent. On April 7, when President Trump announced a bilateral cease-fire, Bitcoin surged above $71,000 in reaction to the relief. Two days later, the first cracks in the ceasefire appeared and prices stagnated. Markets move based on expectations.
At the time of this publication, The cryptocurrency market fear and greed index created by CoinMarketCap is 45 pointsis classified as “neutral”. This is an improvement from the panic levels recorded in the past few days as the escalating conflict gripped global financial markets. But 45 points is not an optimistic market. It’s a thriving but untrusted market.
This move is in line with the analysis of Spanish expert Ignacio Moreno de Vicente of CryptoQuant, who argues that Bitcoin’s stress cycle is nearing an end. His argument is based on sharpe ratio In the short term, the -40 threshold is reached, a level that historically marked market bottoms in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023. “We are nearing the beginning of the opportunity, not the end,” the analyst wrote.
Not everyone agrees. Trader Willy Wu warns that on-chain models point to an even deeper bottom in the $46,000 to $54,000 range, especially if the stock market eventually collapses and digital assets decline. These are two valid technical analysis readings for the same asset that are in dispute.
The decisive day is approaching
The talks in Islamabad will be the first formal diplomatic event since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Iran submitted a 10-point proposal announced Wednesday, including maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, recognizing the right to enrich nuclear weapons and lifting sanctions.
Those are the biggest conditions. It is unlikely that they will be accepted in the first round. but What the parties feel is already a signal that the market reads.
New talks on Lebanon will be held in Washington on Monday, April 13th. Israeli President Netanyahu claimed on Thursday that he had given instructions to start peace talks with Beirut on the condition that Hezbollah disarms. Hezbollah refuses to negotiate directly with Israel.
There is a precarious balance. And the price of Bitcoin shows that.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
