Financial rating agency Weiss Ratings predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) could find a price floor between April 5th and 7th, depending on what happens in the war between the US and Iran.
Agency experts note that the timing indicated is consistent with the agency’s internal model and the evolution of Japan’s money supply (M2).
According to the company, Bitcoin will approach its lowest value around April 5thMeanwhile, Japan’s M2 tracking shows similar levels around April 7th.
This hypothesis is based on a macroeconomic perspective. Weiss argues that Bitcoin closely tracks trends in Japan’s M2, a measure of liquidity that includes cash in circulation and bank deposits.
More directly, it is a way of measuring how much money is available in the economy. When that liquidity shrinks, Risk assets tend to weaken. It usually recovers even if enlarged.
In this case, our office will interpret it as follows: Recent drop in Japan’s M2 predicts bottom for BTC pricethe logic is that liquidity movements precede market movements.
This relationship can be visualized in a graph published by Weiss. It has three variables superimposed on it. The light blue line shows the price of BTC, the blue line represents central bank liquidity, and the red line corresponds to Japan’s M2.
According to the company’s research, BTC followed the latter trajectory more closely. This supports the idea that a decline in the red line indicates that the asset is close to its minimum value. But Weiss cautions that this lower bound does not depend solely on financial variables.
Bitcoin pays attention to what’s happening in the Middle East
The company directly ties this time frame to: Developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran, which is reaching a critical stage. In particular, he said the period from April 5 to 7 coincides with a key political deadline for Iran to move toward some kind of agreement.
Geopolitical factors are not a small factor. As CriptoNoticias explains, the conflict has a direct impact on global energy markets due to the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil circulates. Any disruption or threat to this corridor would tend to increase oil prices, creating inflationary pressures globally.
This point is the key to understanding its relationship with BTC. Rising oil prices are forcing central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy, making it difficult for economies like the United States to cut interest rates. Lower liquidity and higher interest rates typically lead to less appetite for assets that are considered risky, such as the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto and cryptocurrencies.
In this context, Weiss suggests two scenarios. If some kind of agreement is reached between the US and Iran, Markets could rebound quickly on improving macro expectations. Conversely, if tensions persist or increase, the environment will remain unfavorable for BTC even if technical models predict a bottom.
The company also clarified that the expected minimum in April would not necessarily mark the end of the correction phase, but would be the most relevant level for 2026 identified so far. So it’s a tactical floor, not necessarily a cycle change.
