The market is once again paying attention to the financial strength of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin (BTC) financial firm Strategy.
The company is the publicly traded company with the largest amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, totaling 713,502 BTC. This exposure makes them particularly sensitive to changes in asset prices. It explains why the debate over financial position is reinvigorated every time a relevant amendment is made.
At the time of publishing this note, Bitcoin is trading at $75,800, down 39% from its all-time high of $126,000, as seen in the chart below.
Since July, Strategy stock has fallen nearly 71%, from $458 to $133.26.
As a result, the standard multiple of net asset value (mNAV) decreased to 0.814. This means that the market values the company less than its net BTC holdings.
For some investors, this may be interpreted as an opportunity to buy at a discount. But for others, it’s a sign of greater skepticism about the model’s sustainability.
In this context, aggressive bets on Polymarket, a popular decentralized betting company, have put into question whether the strategy will announce bankruptcy by 2027.
According to data displayed on the platform, the market currently assigns a probability of nearly 11% to that scenario. The amount of stakes exceeds $100,000, a number that reflects the interest of participants, but does not constitute a formal financial evaluation of the company.
A company’s financial viability is determined not only by the price of its assets, but also by certain variables, such as its debt structure, maturity, debt refinancing costs, ability to generate cash flow, and the ability to weather long periods of weakness without being forced to make extraordinary decisions.
In any case, if it is necessary to mention that the strategy has market sensitivities: What happens if the companies with the most Bitcoin in their treasury start selling some of their holdings?
Significant declines, especially if carried out during periods of low liquidity or high volatility, can increase available supply and put downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, this will have a signaling effect. Many investors may interpret this as a change in strategy or a need for liquidity, which could worsen sentiment and fuel further selling.
If this scenario materializes, BTC price could face further downward pressure due to increased supply in the market. This is especially true if the sales are relevant and occur during periods of low liquidity.
What is polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform founded in 2020 that allows users to bet on the occurrence of future events. As explained by Criptopedia, the educational arm of CriptoNoticias, its operation is based on smart contracts that automate transactions between different tokens and settle the results depending on the outcome of each event.
Unlike surveys and analyst reports, the probabilities formed on Polymarket stem from collective expectations expressed with real money at stake and provide a signal of market sentiment.
