Venezuela’s economy appears to have entered a phase of contradiction that defies the logic of ordinary citizens. While the cost of living continues to trend upward, the price of USDT, the stablecoin issued by Tether and a haven for thousands of savers, has unexpectedly fallen.
On April 5th, the asset was trading near 622 bolivars on platforms such as Binance, completing a decline of more than 6.5% in just one week since reaching a peak of 682 bolivars on March 28th.
However, behind this exchange rate suspension lies a statistical reality that is being closely watched by experts. Hermes Pérez, an economist and former head of the Central Bank of Venezuela’s (BCV) exchange desk, said: A 50% increase in monetary liquidity (M2) was recorded between December 2025 and March 2026.
According to Perez, this surplus of bolivars in the system is the determining factor. Increased availability of domestic currency will put pressure on demand for foreign currency.
The current calm in the P2P market raises questions, especially when compared to the episode of volatility experienced at the beginning of the year. This phenomenon has significantly narrowed the exchange rate gap. As reported by CriptoNoticias, the difference between USDT and the dollar in bank auctions rose from 21.4% to 10.6% in seven days. This is because the official interest rate and bank interest rate rose to approximately 474 bolivars and 570 bolivars, respectively, while cryptocurrencies declined.
In contrast, in January 2026, a period of monetary expansion similar to the current one coincided with the peak of USDT, which reached 900 bolivars. Why does the market seem to be ignoring money supply growth for now?
Sector analysts quoted in the CriptoNoticias report suggest that the answer lies in the balance of power. On the other hand, the cumulative inflation rate for the first two months reached 51.94%, which naturally led economic agents to seek protection in USDT. On the other hand, oil exports and BCV intervention have made foreign currency supply more stable, We succeeded in reducing the exchange rate gap, and the market temporarily stabilized.
USDT is a reliable thermometer in Venezuela
Despite recent stability, technical fundamentals suggest the balance is fragile. The dynamics are similar to those of a reservoir that constantly receives water. This means that even if the level increases, if the exit is narrow, the pressure will increase.
Perez highlighted that liquidity rose 12.2% in the week of March 13 alone, a number that typically serves as a precursor to a price correction. “Financial liquidity has increased by 50% by 2026,” the economists warned, noting that this expanding trend is the usual driver of exchange rate corrections.
In this context, USDT’s actions are consolidated as a real thermometer of trust in Venezuela. Currently, foreign currency inflows from oil are acting as a containment dam, but markets are closely monitoring whether the central bank can absorb the bolivar surplus. Even if this is not the case, local economic history suggests that. The value of digital havens will soon hit a new ceiling It reflects the reality of the amount of currency in circulation.
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