Bitcoin
BTC$107,889.53
It is currently merged between $107,000 and $109,000, with only a few percent points remaining. While this tight range may appear to be stable on the surface, on-chain data suggests emotional changes among the large owners known as the whales, the most influential participants on the market.
GlassNode’s Accumulated trend scoremeasures of accumulation behavior across cohorts of different wallet sizes provide deeper insight into this evolving market dynamics.
The metric evaluates the strength of your purchase by combining the size of your wallet entity with the amount of Bitcoin you have acquired over the past 15 days. For the largest holders, the value dropped to 0.4. Readings close to 1 indicate strong purchases, but sales have levels of nearly 0 points. Importantly, wallets related to exchanges and miners have been excluded from this analysis to provide a more clear context of investor behavior.
What stands out is that entities with more than 10,000 BTC were normally classified as whales and began to accumulate at about $75,000 at the market’s April low. Currently, other wallet cohorts remain in accumulation mode, while they are beginning to reduce their holdings. This pivot suggests strategic changes that are potentially driven by desire to lock in profits near historic highs and more cautious outlook in the short-term price direction.
Trend accumulation scores by cohort (GlassNode)
Supporting evidence of this change in behavior arises from exchange flow data showing that whales’ wallets have been steadily withdrawing bitcoin for the past month.
This trend appears to be reversed at the moment. In two of the last three days, the whales have returned their BTC to exchange. This is a pattern that is generally related to impending sales activities.
Whale: Deposit vs. Breakdown (GlassNode)
This subtle behavior raises an important question: do whales predict local tops?
