Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, asserted that while the Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing positive signs, it is not yet time to be extremely bullish.
This statement was made in an interview published on the YouTube channel of American investor Anthony Pompliano on April 1, 2026. So Siegel revisited his predictions regarding the market impact of BTC, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitics.
“We remain bullish, but we have not increased our positions as much as expected given our respect for the four-year cycle,” the analyst said.
His vision is based on Bitcoin’s historical movement, which typically consists of roughly four-year cycles of alternating bullish and bearish movements. This pattern is related to the halving, which is a scheduled event in the Bitcoin protocol. Halve the amount of new digital currency issuedas explained by CriptoNoticias.
As new supply declines, the market has tended to react with higher prices in each post-halving year (after the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halvings).
Similarly, the second year after each halving is always bearish, and 2026 is no exception. He stated, “Because of the four-year cycle, it is not possible to be “maximum bullish” regarding Bitcoin, and clarified the following. The current situation requires a more nuanced reading of the market.
Siegel remains optimistic
Despite this caution, experts identify technical signs that strengthen a positive vision. One of the main ones is from the derivatives market, where contracts such as futures and options are traded. These products allow investors to predict prices and protect against adverse movements. Usually provides relevant information regarding market positioning.
Mr. Siegel also supported his vision with concrete data from the derivatives market. “The cost of puts and calls is in the 99th percentile, which means people are paying a lot of money for protection,” he explained, adding, “The derivatives market has made me optimistic.”
In reality, this refers to the options market. Investors use contracts to hedge against potential declines (put) or bet on an increase (phone). If a put option becomes more expensive than a call option, it indicates strong hedging demand.
This data has a specific technical interpretation. The fact that investors pay so much for downside protection means there is a high level of coverage in the market. In that context, If a strong bearish move does not materialize, selling pressure tends to weaken.which could favor price increases. This is what is known as a reverse signal.
Another central element in his analysis is that Supply dynamics of the most valuable digital assets on the market. Siegel noted that sales by historical BTC holders (better known as “OG”) have been declining in recent months. Regarding this, he said:
Sales of “OG” coins (3-5 year old coins) have calmed down recently. Miners like MARA continue to be sellers, but many of the old sources of supply have already been wiped out.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research, VanEck
This point is important. Ancient coins that have remained dormant for years. When an owner decides to sell, there is usually downward pressure.. If the relevant portion of that supply has already been absorbed by the market, the risk of new large sales is reduced and contributes to the stability of Bitcoin’s price.
Still, Siegel acknowledged that miners remain structural sellers. In his analysis, he explained that these companies “need to sell Bitcoin” to finance their operations and adapt to new business models, such as reconverting parts of their infrastructure to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
Siegel’s ideas about miners as a permanent source of supply are reflected in recent developments in the field. As reported by CriptoNoticias, MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC from March 4th to 25th for approximately $1.1 billion. Gain financial flexibility by buying back convertible debt. While the company claims it has not abandoned its BTC-focused strategy, the business is also linked to a broader diversification process into infrastructure related to AI and high-performance computing.
Therefore, while old supply appears to be losing importance as a factor of downward pressure, sales from miners remain a relevant factor in market dynamics. However, unlike large historical holders, this flow of sales is typically more predictable.
In any case, Mr. Siegel’s analysis is not limited to suggestions such as: It also incorporates the macroeconomic and geopolitical context that directly impacts the market.
middle east conflict
Siegel cited uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping lane through which 20% of the world’s energy supply circulates.
Tensions in the region could impact energy prices and thus global inflation. This, in turn, will influence the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decisions. A high interest rate environment reduces available liquidity; adversely affect assets considered to be at risk;like BTC or cryptocurrencies.
This intersection of factors creates an obvious tension in the market. On the other hand, technical indicators such as derivatives and declining supply point to a favorable scenario. On the other hand, historical cycles and macroeconomic conditions are alarming..
In this context, Siegel’s position falls somewhere in between. Although analysts have not ruled out a bullish scenario, However, we believe that the conditions for widespread euphoria are not yet in place.
